NFFC Financial Talk

[Salvatore Matrecano]

Percy's latest article saying we need to raise only £20m in sales and are hoping to do it via fringe players rather than the big two.

4m for Worrall
Turner should still be worth a bit. 5-7m
Vlachodimos - 4m
Lewis O'Brien - 4/5m
Emmanuel Dennis - 4/5m
Josh Bowler - 1/2m - Had a decent season in the Championship.
Omar Richards - A loan fee that covers his cost for this year.

I might be a little optimistic on them figures but that should hit the 20m mark

All in the space of 2 weeks when other clubs have spending restrictions too?

People made these calculations last year too. I seem to remember people saying we could raise £30-40m from selling the above meaning we could keep Johnson. Of course we couldn’t because strangely enough other clubs aren’t keen on our reject’s either. The only sale we made last season was £5m for Surridge.

We may get a bit for some but likely a PSR loss as Reds is saying.

[Sausage Roll]

Percy's latest article saying we need to raise only £20m in sales and are hoping to do it via fringe players rather than the big two.

Sales are irrelevant for PSR.
It’s all about the profit.
You could sell Sangare for 20m and make a 10m loss or sell Murillo for 20m and make a 10m profit.

PSR is profit and loss related and not a sales figure.

Just passing on what Percy's tweet says. If you're not happy with the wording take it up with him.

[The reds]

So the breach was 95.5m. 34.5m over the 61m limit which is 57% 
If no sales which there will be, 103m over 83m is 24%

Losses expected to be around 10m as it stands

How do they actually punish us. If we don't reach the figure required

2 Years already been punished and we are way under a 35m loss this season

[Magictorch]

It’s still posturing. Need to sell one of the big ones to be able to strengthen the squad. This just means if people want MGW or Murillo that they’ll have to pay top whack

[Trailer Park Tom]

How does it work selling players at a loss. We always hear people say it's pure profit but what does the loss mean?

[Reds73]

How does it work selling players at a loss. We always hear people say it's pure profit but what does the loss mean?

A loss makes the PSR position worse.
We need to turn a projected 12-17m loss into a 9m profit.

So let’s go with Percy’s 20m profit needed to hit the numbers.

Let’s just say we sold Sangare for 20m next week. His remaining cost (pre 30/6) is still at 30m
Therefore that would turn the projected 12-17m loss into a 22-27m projected loss.

Then we would need to make a 30m profit before 30/6 to hit the numbers.

Likewise we can’t really sign players on a fee until after 1/7, we really can’t sell any players to create further losses before 1/7.

[Reds73]

There is no way we can manoeuvre out of this by just selling fringe players.
Murillo will be the one, on the basis he is prob the easiest to replace out of the players that would hit the required amounts

[The reds]

How does it work selling players at a loss. We always hear people say it's pure profit but what does the loss mean?

A loss makes the PSR position worse.
We need to turn a projected 12-17m loss into a 9m profit.

So let’s go with Percy’s 20m profit needed to hit the numbers.

Let’s just say we sold Sangare for 20m next week. His remaining cost (pre 30/6) is still at 30m
Therefore that would turn the projected 12-17m loss into a 22-27m projected loss.

Then we would need to make a 30m profit before 30/6 to hit the numbers.

Likewise we can’t really sign players on a fee until after 1/7, we really can’t sell any players to create further losses before 1/7.

I think Forest know that, They will sell players they know that will fetch them profit. Would big loan fees help us on certain players.

[Reds73]

How does it work selling players at a loss. We always hear people say it's pure profit but what does the loss mean?

A loss makes the PSR position worse.
We need to turn a projected 12-17m loss into a 9m profit.

So let’s go with Percy’s 20m profit needed to hit the numbers.

Let’s just say we sold Sangare for 20m next week. His remaining cost (pre 30/6) is still at 30m
Therefore that would turn the projected 12-17m loss into a 22-27m projected loss.

Then we would need to make a 30m profit before 30/6 to hit the numbers.

Likewise we can’t really sign players on a fee until after 1/7, we really can’t sell any players to create further losses before 1/7.

I think Forest know that, They will sell players they know that will fetch them profit. Would big loan fees help us on certain players.

Post 1/7 we are in a good position.
Rolling 2 yr losses will be under 33m with allowable 3yr losses of 105m
So as long as we hit the required numbers by 30/6 we can certainly get to work in a good way

[The reds]

How does it work selling players at a loss. We always hear people say it's pure profit but what does the loss mean?

A loss makes the PSR position worse.
We need to turn a projected 12-17m loss into a 9m profit.

So let’s go with Percy’s 20m profit needed to hit the numbers.

Let’s just say we sold Sangare for 20m next week. His remaining cost (pre 30/6) is still at 30m
Therefore that would turn the projected 12-17m loss into a 22-27m projected loss.

Then we would need to make a 30m profit before 30/6 to hit the numbers.

Likewise we can’t really sign players on a fee until after 1/7, we really can’t sell any players to create further losses before 1/7.

I think Forest know that, They will sell players they know that will fetch them profit. Would big loan fees help us on certain players.

Post 1/7 we are in a good position.
Rolling 2 yr losses will be under 33m with allowable 3yr losses of 105m
So as long as we hit the required numbers by 30/6 we can certainly get to work in a good way

So do Loan Fees help us reach the 20m target.

[TrickySte]

Taking JP's numbers at face value, looks like we're currently on course to lose £11m this season.

21/22 - £40m loss
22/23 - £52m loss
23/24 - £11m loss

Total = £103m loss (£20m over the £83m limit)

So to hit the £83m limit, we need to turn the £11m loss into a £9m profit.

Worrall might get you £4/5m profit if Sheff Utd sort out their ownership? (Academy, so £0 book value)
O'Brien might make you £2m profit? Sell him for £5m to Ipswich? (approx. £3m current book value)
Vlach might make you £1/2m if we're lucky (£4m to Olympiakos/Germany?). (approx. £3m current book value)
Richards might be £1/2m but only if Olympiakos help us out. (approx. £4m current book value)
Toffolo might be one that could raise a few million, as his book value will be £0 (or minimal) as he originally signed a 2 year deal.
Turner maybe has a market in MLS but would they spend the £6m+ to give us any sort of profit? Maybe with a home World Cup coming up someone will go for him.
I can't see Bowler, Hwang, Dennis giving us much (unless the Saudi's fancy Dennis), so a loan fee & wages covered is best we could hope for.

I think we'll struggle tbh, it might be a case of us doing the best we can & going to mitigation next year, telling them we tried our best to raise funds & hope we get a lenient punishment like Everton part 2.

That said, if we do sell Murillo for £60m-ish. That would be £50m profit, which turns the £11m loss this year into a £39m profit and would give us ample room for next season.

22/23 - £52m loss
23/24 - £39m profit* assuming Murillo sold.
24/25 - TBC?

Total = £13m loss* (£92m under the £105m limit)

[Forest1970]

How does it work selling players at a loss. We always hear people say it's pure profit but what does the loss mean?

A loss makes the PSR position worse.
We need to turn a projected 12-17m loss into a 9m profit.

So let’s go with Percy’s 20m profit needed to hit the numbers.

Let’s just say we sold Sangare for 20m next week. His remaining cost (pre 30/6) is still at 30m
Therefore that would turn the projected 12-17m loss into a 22-27m projected loss.

Then we would need to make a 30m profit before 30/6 to hit the numbers.

Likewise we can’t really sign players on a fee until after 1/7, we really can’t sell any players to create further losses before 1/7.

I think Forest know that, They will sell players they know that will fetch them profit. Would big loan fees help us on certain players.

Post 1/7 we are in a good position.
Rolling 2 yr losses will be under 33m with allowable 3yr losses of 105m
So as long as we hit the required numbers by 30/6 we can certainly get to work in a good way

Taking JP's numbers at face value, looks like we're currently on course to lose £11m this season.

21/22 - £40m loss
22/23 - £52m loss
23/24 - £11m loss

Total = £103m loss (£20m over the £83m limit)

So to hit the £83m limit, we need to turn the £11m loss into a £9m profit.

Worrall might get you £4/5m profit if Sheff Utd sort out their ownership? (Academy, so £0 book value)
O'Brien might make you £2m profit? Sell him for £5m to Ipswich? (approx. £3m current book value)
Vlach might make you £1/2m if we're lucky (£4m to Olympiakos/Germany?). (approx. £3m current book value)
Richards might be £1/2m but only if Olympiakos help us out. (approx. £4m current book value)
Toffolo might be one that could raise a few million, as his book value will be £0 (or minimal) as he originally signed a 2 year deal.
Turner maybe has a market in MLS but would they spend the £6m+ to give us any sort of profit? Maybe with a home World Cup coming up someone will go for him.
I can't see Bowler, Hwang, Dennis giving us much (unless the Saudi's fancy Dennis), so a loan fee & wages covered is best we could hope for.

I think we'll struggle tbh, it might be a case of us doing the best we can & going to mitigation next year, telling them we tried our best to raise funds & hope we get a lenient punishment like Everton part 2.

That said, if we do sell Murillo for £60m-ish. That would be £50m profit, which turns the £11m loss this year into a £39m profit and would give us ample room for next season.

22/23 - £52m loss
23/24 - £39m profit* assuming Murillo sold.
24/25 - TBC?

Total = £13m loss* (£92m under the £105m limit)

That made it a bit clearer for me  ::

But what about the Brennan Johnson money as I thought we couldn't use his sale in last years figures only in this years ? Forgive me for not being clued up on this at all.