(27-12-2018, 09:27 PM)Strawberry Avenger Wrote: (27-12-2018, 09:08 PM)It Salvatore Matrecano Wrote: (27-12-2018, 12:11 PM)ozzyten10 Wrote: Forest boffin posted somewhere the stats on promotion and time in the job. Made for very interesting reading...
Here you go, copied from Forest Boffin.
1. The average time for a manager to gain promotion from The Championship is 686.5 days.
Karanka is not even half way into this. It takes time to build for promotion. Changing the manager restarts this clock.
2. 42 managers have won promotion from The Championship (modern); 37/42 have had at least 1 full campaign (88.1%).
Changing manager in The Championship mid-season damages the chance of promotion in that campaign.
3. The last 9 full time managers at Forest (not including Karanka) have not been given a full campaign.
This instability coincides with our poorest spell of results.
Regularly changing manager has not improved results.
4. The last time a Forest manager was allowed either a full campaign, or the average time needed for promotion (686. 5 days), Forest finished in the play-offs.
We have not done so since.
Amen. :angel:
SA.
I like this post by Boffin so much, I'd like to post it again. Just to remind me, how GOOD it actually was.
Most of the teams I remember getting promoted (Boro' included with Aitor, funnily enough...) stuck with it.
Forest have 'nothing' to build on. That's why they're up and down. Give it another year and they'll be more stable than they are now.
Which is miles better than they were last season or the seasons before.
This 'I want it now' culture. You may as well roll a dice every six months and see if you score a six. Sure, you might storm the top 6 and get promoted by the skin of your teeth.
Forest are 3 points off. I'd have take that at the beginning of the season.
The bits that are systematic weaknesses in the side are there for all to see. LB cover to push Jack. A prime commanding CH. A winger who can hold up play and go at teams and score match winners (that isn't Dias, it seems...) and 'two' of the Portuguese 'lightweights' haven't made it. And a keeper that doesn't instill his backline with any confidence.
Add that up? You have a side that can't quite put teams to the sword even when 3-0 up. It's a side that's in transition and that's what Forest are. Not bad for his first proper 5 months in charge of competitive Championship football.
It's the first time Forest have properly built and had a pre-season in years. Or this level of investment. (But the latter doesn't guarantee promotion...as it didn't Leicester first time around under Sven...) I'd argue Forest are ahead of schedule in contrast with Norwich last season. They kept their nerve and are reaping the rewards.
Forest have proven their point against all teams in the top 6 now. I'd like to see us build from a position from relative strength.
SA.