30 Signings Who Gives a F**k, We're Nottingham Forest and We're Staying Up

[wassy04]

I just read an article on the Athletic pointing out a transfer has roughly a 50% chance of success, listed a number of reason why it might not work. 

The player might not be as good as you think; he might not suit the team’s style; he might end up being played out of position; the manager might not like him; he might have fitness or personal issues; he might be no better than a player already in the squad.

So on the basis of that, how do we think our transfer panel have done, I did this in Jan but think some will have been upgraded since then. Going to go for a simple metric of Success, Fail or Too Soon to Tell. Obviously some will be bigger successes than others. In order of fees (all in Euros from Transfermarkt)

Summer
MGW - 30m (currently) - Success
Taiwo - 20m - Success
Neco - 20m - Too Soon, likely Fail for that price
Dennis - 15m - Fail
Mangala - 13m - Success
Niakhate - 10m - Success (mainly due to his throw-ins!)
Biancone - 10m - Fail
O'Brien - 9m - Fail
Freuler - 9m - Fail
Richards - 8m - Fail
Lodi - Loan - Success
Hwang - 4m - Fail, what was the point of this signing?! It really deserves it's own thread as I have no idea. 
Boly - 2.6m - Success (for that price)
Toffolo - 2.4m - Success
Bowler - 2.3m - Fail
Aguilera - 1m - Too soon to tell
Lingard - Free - Fail
Kouyate - Free - Success
Hennessey - Free - Fail (had to sign a replacement when he was required so can't really consider it a success)
Kanuric - Free - Who?!
Hendo - Loan - Success
Bade - Loan - Fail
Aurier - Free - Success

Winter
Danilo - 20m - Success
Shelvey - 6m - Fail
Wood - 20m - Fail
Felipe - 2.5m - Success
Scarpa - Free - Too soon to tell
Ayew - Free - Fail
Navas - Loan - Success

In total I make that 13 Success at 98m, 13 Fail at 83.3m and 4 Too soon to tell at 21m.

So based on some pretty detailed analysis, our hit rate came out at 50%! Given we signed so many players, there were always going to be fails as only 11 players can play each game so to get 13 considered a success is a good achievement. I think a number of those were probably updated to success late, in particular Mangala and Niakhate plus Danilo.

Something to note for this summer, expect at least half our signings to fail and if we get a 50% rate or above then we've done pretty well.

[Username]

How does Scarpa get a free pass compared to the other?

[wassy04]

How does Scarpa get a free pass compared to the other?

Yeah I was being kind there. I feel like he was injured/unavailable due to being scammed for large parts of the season so hard to tell too much.

[Salvatore Matrecano]

Reckon we have a better than 50% success rate this season, for the first time it has to be said. What is intriguing is that those apparently identified by stats and analytics have had a no better success rate than those who by all accounts were mainly done by agents/ownership contacts.

Another important point that shouldnt be overlooked is that the vast majority (you know the exception) seem to be really good characters who at very least have built a team spirit off the pitch. That includes experienced PL and CL players with big egos who I thought could be trouble or here for a last pay day have given their all, Navas, Felipe, Kouyate, Freuler, Aurier, even Wood and Lingard all contributed to building a team.

[Salvatore Matrecano]

My take on it, think you have a few figures out from what we heard, you may be using Euro rate?

Summer
MGW - 30m (currently) - Success, will be our biggest transfer fee received one day
Taiwo - 17m - Success
Neco - 17m - Too Soon, will come good IMO but yes we paid over the odds
Dennis - 12m - Fail
Mangala - 10m - OK Not convinced he is PL standard
Niakhate - 10m - As with Mangala not convinced even with throw ins.
Biancone - 5m - Too soon give him a chance
O'Brien - 9m - Fail Something odd gone off here
Freuler - 9m - Fail, yep doesn’t suit the PL
Richards - 8m - Fail
Lodi - Loan - Success
Hwang - 4m - Fail
Boly - 2.6m - Not sure, seems to be a sicknote but decent when he plays
Toffolo - 2.4m - Success
Bowler - 2.3m - Fail
Aguilera - 1m - Too soon to tell
Lingard - Free - Fail
Kouyate - Free - Success
Hennessey - Free - success IMO
Kanuric - Free - Who?!
Hendo - Loan - Success
Bade - Loan - Fail
Aurier - Free - Success

Winter
Danilo - 20m - Success (although think we are getting a bit carried away, much to learn)
Shelvey - 6m - Fail
Wood - 20m - Too soon, still has a part to play. Ridiculous deal negotiated.
Felipe - 2.5m - Success
Scarpa - Free - Fail for me, judging early but not seen anything convincing.
Ayew - Free - Fail
Navas - Loan - Success

[wassy04]

My take on it, think you have a few figures out from what we heard, you may be using Euro rate?

Summer
MGW - 30m (currently) - Success, will be our biggest transfer fee received one day
Taiwo - 17m - Success
Neco - 17m - Too Soon, will come good IMO but yes we paid over the odds
Dennis - 12m - Fail
Mangala - 10m - OK Not convinced he is PL standard
Niakhate - 10m - As with Mangala not convinced even with throw ins.
Biancone - 5m - Too soon give him a chance
O'Brien - 9m - Fail Something odd gone off here
Freuler - 9m - Fail, yep doesn’t suit the PL
Richards - 8m - Fail
Lodi - Loan - Success
Hwang - 4m - Fail
Boly - 2.6m - Not sure, seems to be a sicknote but decent when he plays
Toffolo - 2.4m - Success
Bowler - 2.3m - Fail
Aguilera - 1m - Too soon to tell
Lingard - Free - Fail
Kouyate - Free - Success
Hennessey - Free - success IMO
Kanuric - Free - Who?!
Hendo - Loan - Success
Bade - Loan - Fail
Aurier - Free - Success

Winter
Danilo - 20m - Success (although think we are getting a bit carried away, much to learn)
Shelvey - 6m - Fail
Wood - 20m - Too soon, still has a part to play. Ridiculous deal negotiated.
Felipe - 2.5m - Success
Scarpa - Free - Fail for me, judging early but not seen anything convincing.
Ayew - Free - Fail
Navas - Loan - Success

Yes was from Transfermarkt, mentioned above it was in euros

[McDurban]

I just read an article on the Athletic pointing out a transfer has roughly a 50% chance of success, listed a number of reason why it might not work. 

The player might not be as good as you think; he might not suit the team’s style; he might end up being played out of position; the manager might not like him; he might have fitness or personal issues; he might be no better than a player already in the squad.

So on the basis of that, how do we think our transfer panel have done, I did this in Jan but think some will have been upgraded since then. Going to go for a simple metric of Success, Fail or Too Soon to Tell. Obviously some will be bigger successes than others. In order of fees (all in Euros from Transfermarkt)

Summer
MGW - 30m (currently) - Success
Taiwo - 20m - Success
Neco - 20m - Too Soon, likely Fail for that price
Dennis - 15m - Fail
Mangala - 13m - Success
Niakhate - 10m - Success (mainly due to his throw-ins!)
Biancone - 10m - Fail
O'Brien - 9m - Fail
Freuler - 9m - Fail
Richards - 8m - Fail
Lodi - Loan - Success
Hwang - 4m - Fail, what was the point of this signing?! It really deserves it's own thread as I have no idea. 
Boly - 2.6m - Success (for that price)
Toffolo - 2.4m - Success
Bowler - 2.3m - Fail
Aguilera - 1m - Too soon to tell
Lingard - Free - Fail
Kouyate - Free - Success
Hennessey - Free - Fail (had to sign a replacement when he was required so can't really consider it a success)
Kanuric - Free - Who?!
Hendo - Loan - Success
Bade - Loan - Fail
Aurier - Free - Success

Winter
Danilo - 20m - Success
Shelvey - 6m - Fail
Wood - 20m - Fail
Felipe - 2.5m - Success
Scarpa - Free - Too soon to tell
Ayew - Free - Fail
Navas - Loan - Success

In total I make that 13 Success at 98m, 13 Fail at 83.3m and 4 Too soon to tell at 21m.

So based on some pretty detailed analysis, our hit rate came out at 50%! Given we signed so many players, there were always going to be fails as only 11 players can play each game so to get 13 considered a success is a good achievement. I think a number of those were probably updated to success late, in particular Mangala and Niakhate plus Danilo.

Something to note for this summer, expect at least half our signings to fail and if we get a 50% rate or above then we've done pretty well.

I don't think Freuler is a fail, he's played his part in getting Forest over the line.

[wassy04]

I just read an article on the Athletic pointing out a transfer has roughly a 50% chance of success, listed a number of reason why it might not work. 

The player might not be as good as you think; he might not suit the team’s style; he might end up being played out of position; the manager might not like him; he might have fitness or personal issues; he might be no better than a player already in the squad.

So on the basis of that, how do we think our transfer panel have done, I did this in Jan but think some will have been upgraded since then. Going to go for a simple metric of Success, Fail or Too Soon to Tell. Obviously some will be bigger successes than others. In order of fees (all in Euros from Transfermarkt)

Summer
MGW - 30m (currently) - Success
Taiwo - 20m - Success
Neco - 20m - Too Soon, likely Fail for that price
Dennis - 15m - Fail
Mangala - 13m - Success
Niakhate - 10m - Success (mainly due to his throw-ins!)
Biancone - 10m - Fail
O'Brien - 9m - Fail
Freuler - 9m - Fail
Richards - 8m - Fail
Lodi - Loan - Success
Hwang - 4m - Fail, what was the point of this signing?! It really deserves it's own thread as I have no idea. 
Boly - 2.6m - Success (for that price)
Toffolo - 2.4m - Success
Bowler - 2.3m - Fail
Aguilera - 1m - Too soon to tell
Lingard - Free - Fail
Kouyate - Free - Success
Hennessey - Free - Fail (had to sign a replacement when he was required so can't really consider it a success)
Kanuric - Free - Who?!
Hendo - Loan - Success
Bade - Loan - Fail
Aurier - Free - Success

Winter
Danilo - 20m - Success
Shelvey - 6m - Fail
Wood - 20m - Fail
Felipe - 2.5m - Success
Scarpa - Free - Too soon to tell
Ayew - Free - Fail
Navas - Loan - Success

In total I make that 13 Success at 98m, 13 Fail at 83.3m and 4 Too soon to tell at 21m.

So based on some pretty detailed analysis, our hit rate came out at 50%! Given we signed so many players, there were always going to be fails as only 11 players can play each game so to get 13 considered a success is a good achievement. I think a number of those were probably updated to success late, in particular Mangala and Niakhate plus Danilo.

Something to note for this summer, expect at least half our signings to fail and if we get a 50% rate or above then we've done pretty well.

I don't think Freuler is a fail, he's played his part in getting Forest over the line.

We noticeably improved when he was dropped! We paid 9m euros for a guy that was supposedly The Conductor and the finished article. Likely not have much resale value due to his age (and performance). He struggled to cope with the pace of the league (he openly admitted this in interviews before the World Cup). Not sure he really ever got there personally. Central midfield was easily our biggest weakness throughout the season.

I thought on paper the signing made sense, however he just wasn't able to adapt.

[Tricky]

I just read an article on the Athletic pointing out a transfer has roughly a 50% chance of success, listed a number of reason why it might not work. 

The player might not be as good as you think; he might not suit the team’s style; he might end up being played out of position; the manager might not like him; he might have fitness or personal issues; he might be no better than a player already in the squad.

So on the basis of that, how do we think our transfer panel have done, I did this in Jan but think some will have been upgraded since then. Going to go for a simple metric of Success, Fail or Too Soon to Tell. Obviously some will be bigger successes than others. In order of fees (all in Euros from Transfermarkt)

Summer
MGW - 30m (currently) - Success
Taiwo - 20m - Success
Neco - 20m - Too Soon, likely Fail for that price
Dennis - 15m - Fail
Mangala - 13m - Success
Niakhate - 10m - Success (mainly due to his throw-ins!)
Biancone - 10m - Fail
O'Brien - 9m - Fail
Freuler - 9m - Fail
Richards - 8m - Fail
Lodi - Loan - Success
Hwang - 4m - Fail, what was the point of this signing?! It really deserves it's own thread as I have no idea. 
Boly - 2.6m - Success (for that price)
Toffolo - 2.4m - Success
Bowler - 2.3m - Fail
Aguilera - 1m - Too soon to tell
Lingard - Free - Fail
Kouyate - Free - Success
Hennessey - Free - Fail (had to sign a replacement when he was required so can't really consider it a success)
Kanuric - Free - Who?!
Hendo - Loan - Success
Bade - Loan - Fail
Aurier - Free - Success

Winter
Danilo - 20m - Success
Shelvey - 6m - Fail
Wood - 20m - Fail
Felipe - 2.5m - Success
Scarpa - Free - Too soon to tell
Ayew - Free - Fail
Navas - Loan - Success

In total I make that 13 Success at 98m, 13 Fail at 83.3m and 4 Too soon to tell at 21m.

So based on some pretty detailed analysis, our hit rate came out at 50%! Given we signed so many players, there were always going to be fails as only 11 players can play each game so to get 13 considered a success is a good achievement. I think a number of those were probably updated to success late, in particular Mangala and Niakhate plus Danilo.

Something to note for this summer, expect at least half our signings to fail and if we get a 50% rate or above then we've done pretty well.

I don't think Freuler is a fail, he's played his part in getting Forest over the line.

I dont think Neco is a fail. Dont forget that throughout the season, he has played in a number of positions, through no fault of his own and has had mixed fortunes along the way. It is just a shame he got injured just as he was establishing himself in the RWB role.

I think if we stick with the 3 Cb's and Wb's next season, we will see Neco really come into his own.

[wassy04]

I just read an article on the Athletic pointing out a transfer has roughly a 50% chance of success, listed a number of reason why it might not work. 

The player might not be as good as you think; he might not suit the team’s style; he might end up being played out of position; the manager might not like him; he might have fitness or personal issues; he might be no better than a player already in the squad.

So on the basis of that, how do we think our transfer panel have done, I did this in Jan but think some will have been upgraded since then. Going to go for a simple metric of Success, Fail or Too Soon to Tell. Obviously some will be bigger successes than others. In order of fees (all in Euros from Transfermarkt)

Summer
MGW - 30m (currently) - Success
Taiwo - 20m - Success
Neco - 20m - Too Soon, likely Fail for that price
Dennis - 15m - Fail
Mangala - 13m - Success
Niakhate - 10m - Success (mainly due to his throw-ins!)
Biancone - 10m - Fail
O'Brien - 9m - Fail
Freuler - 9m - Fail
Richards - 8m - Fail
Lodi - Loan - Success
Hwang - 4m - Fail, what was the point of this signing?! It really deserves it's own thread as I have no idea. 
Boly - 2.6m - Success (for that price)
Toffolo - 2.4m - Success
Bowler - 2.3m - Fail
Aguilera - 1m - Too soon to tell
Lingard - Free - Fail
Kouyate - Free - Success
Hennessey - Free - Fail (had to sign a replacement when he was required so can't really consider it a success)
Kanuric - Free - Who?!
Hendo - Loan - Success
Bade - Loan - Fail
Aurier - Free - Success

Winter
Danilo - 20m - Success
Shelvey - 6m - Fail
Wood - 20m - Fail
Felipe - 2.5m - Success
Scarpa - Free - Too soon to tell
Ayew - Free - Fail
Navas - Loan - Success

In total I make that 13 Success at 98m, 13 Fail at 83.3m and 4 Too soon to tell at 21m.

So based on some pretty detailed analysis, our hit rate came out at 50%! Given we signed so many players, there were always going to be fails as only 11 players can play each game so to get 13 considered a success is a good achievement. I think a number of those were probably updated to success late, in particular Mangala and Niakhate plus Danilo.

Something to note for this summer, expect at least half our signings to fail and if we get a 50% rate or above then we've done pretty well.

I don't think Freuler is a fail, he's played his part in getting Forest over the line.

I dont think Neco is a fail. Dont forget that throughout the season, he has played in a number of positions, through no fault of his own and has had mixed fortunes along the way. It is just a shame he got injured just as he was establishing himself in the RWB role.

I think if we stick with the 3 Cb's and Wb's next season, we will see Neco really come into his own.

We might do, or he might be a perennial backup at best or we might not play wingbacks (which is not his fault but would still make the transfer a fail).

He also played RWB in the early games and struggled, worth noting. I still do have hope for him too but for our 2nd highest transfer fee paid for a full back too so a cheaper position, you'd expect more than he offered us last year.

[zicorice]

I just read an article on the Athletic pointing out a transfer has roughly a 50% chance of success, listed a number of reason why it might not work. 

The player might not be as good as you think; he might not suit the team’s style; he might end up being played out of position; the manager might not like him; he might have fitness or personal issues; he might be no better than a player already in the squad.

So on the basis of that, how do we think our transfer panel have done, I did this in Jan but think some will have been upgraded since then. Going to go for a simple metric of Success, Fail or Too Soon to Tell. Obviously some will be bigger successes than others. In order of fees (all in Euros from Transfermarkt)

Summer
MGW - 30m (currently) - Success
Taiwo - 20m - Success
Neco - 20m - Too Soon, likely Fail for that price
Dennis - 15m - Fail
Mangala - 13m - Success
Niakhate - 10m - Success (mainly due to his throw-ins!)
Biancone - 10m - Fail
O'Brien - 9m - Fail
Freuler - 9m - Fail
Richards - 8m - Fail
Lodi - Loan - Success
Hwang - 4m - Fail, what was the point of this signing?! It really deserves it's own thread as I have no idea. 
Boly - 2.6m - Success (for that price)
Toffolo - 2.4m - Success
Bowler - 2.3m - Fail
Aguilera - 1m - Too soon to tell
Lingard - Free - Fail
Kouyate - Free - Success
Hennessey - Free - Fail (had to sign a replacement when he was required so can't really consider it a success)
Kanuric - Free - Who?!
Hendo - Loan - Success
Bade - Loan - Fail
Aurier - Free - Success

Winter
Danilo - 20m - Success
Shelvey - 6m - Fail
Wood - 20m - Fail
Felipe - 2.5m - Success
Scarpa - Free - Too soon to tell
Ayew - Free - Fail
Navas - Loan - Success

In total I make that 13 Success at 98m, 13 Fail at 83.3m and 4 Too soon to tell at 21m.

So based on some pretty detailed analysis, our hit rate came out at 50%! Given we signed so many players, there were always going to be fails as only 11 players can play each game so to get 13 considered a success is a good achievement. I think a number of those were probably updated to success late, in particular Mangala and Niakhate plus Danilo.

Something to note for this summer, expect at least half our signings to fail and if we get a 50% rate or above then we've done pretty well.

I don't think Freuler is a fail, he's played his part in getting Forest over the line.

I dont think Neco is a fail. Dont forget that throughout the season, he has played in a number of positions, through no fault of his own and has had mixed fortunes along the way. It is just a shame he got injured just as he was establishing himself in the RWB role.

I think if we stick with the 3 Cb's and Wb's next season, we will see Neco really come into his own.

We might do, or he might be a perennial backup at best or we might not play wingbacks (which is not his fault but would still make the transfer a fail).

He also played RWB in the early games and struggled, worth noting. I still do have hope for him too but for our 2nd highest transfer fee paid for a full back too so a cheaper position, you'd expect more than he offered us last year.

Neco gave us a glimpse for a few games before injury that he may yet justify the £17.5 million fee.

[Fumanchew]

Bade starts for Sevilla in the Europa final tonight, that will always confuse me. Was this just cooper early season naivety and loyalty to last seasons players? He was with us from game week 6 and made the bench once, our defensive line ups were;

Gw6: worrall cook McKenna (lost)
Gw8: boly cook McKenna (lost)
Gw9: cook McKenna (lost)
Gw10: cook McKenna (score-draw)
Gw11: cook McKenna (lost) (on bench)
Gw12: cook McKenna (no score-draw)
Gw13: cook McKenna (win)
Gw14: cook McKenna (lost)
Gw15: cook McKenna (score-draw)
Gw16: worrall boly (win) (game after spurs cup win)
Gw17: worrall boly (lost)