04-01-2023, 11:35 AM
Southampton so far this season have played mostly a 4-2-3-1 formation however under their new manager they moved to a 3-4-2-1 formation with a view to overload the central midfield areas. I do however suspect that they will use the central midfield overload again to stop the ball being carried forward through the preferred route of transition for forest and allow them to press high.
Southampton are a aggressive team and this season have been very good at winning the ball back from the opposition teams. That said they are inclined to play the more direct passes which also results in a high % of possession loss. The aim of the longer pass is to create long range chances 40% of Southampton’s shots so far are from outside the area with 66% of all shot types from middle areas. We know from previous games that Southampton like to get a lot of shots of during games average of 14 at home with a conversion rate of 8%. What that means is they basically score a goal at home every game.
As you can imagine Southampton have a real weapon in Ward-Prowse and look to give him as many shooting opportunities as possible. The Ref will need to be strong during the game as Southampton will look to go down in dangerous areas, especially looking ones where the ball is high and the defender to be coming over the top.
When Southampton go in front, a strength this season has been holding off the opposition and protecting the lead. Forest should expect Southampton to attack from the start as they will to impose themselves over us. If Forest had ride out the first 20 mins of the game and even push them back they will become more nervous and the crowd will start to get on their back which has been the case in most of the match so far. In fact Southampton have lost 50% of their home matches this season when they have been nullified in the first 20 mins of a match.
As mentioned in the beginning Southampton’s weakness has been dealing with wide area attacks. They have had the most attacking wide dribbles completed against them so far this season. For this reason a expect to see Forest continue with the split striker set up to take full advantage of the spaces left. However to make full use of the space forest will need to move the ball faster back to front and even bypass the midfield transition.
Southampton have not kept a clean sheet at home so far and concede most goals right after halftime. This has been put down to focus following a hard and fast first half. This will be an area the new manager will be looking to improve and it might just mean we don’t see such a frantic first 45mins from them. This could help us as we do struggle to get to grips with games early so with a slower start to both halves I would expect us to get an earlier foot hold in the game.
Most shots against Southampton come in the box area (61% of shots) as the defence are fast to step out in order to block long range efforts. Unfortunately for forest they were getting done by the cute through pass and the manager has noticed this and moved to a back three so less central space has been left if one has to challenge the long range effort. That said the space has now increased to wider areas and we do have players who like to try the curling shots rather than the power drive from distance also means with the split strikers we should get more chances to drive in from wider areas.
This is going to be a very tight game and I suspect 1 goal will win it. If Forest can stop Southampton getting the knock downs from the longer passes then they should have enough to control the possession in the game but the question is can we get that away goal. Most likely outcome (46%) 0-0
Southampton are a aggressive team and this season have been very good at winning the ball back from the opposition teams. That said they are inclined to play the more direct passes which also results in a high % of possession loss. The aim of the longer pass is to create long range chances 40% of Southampton’s shots so far are from outside the area with 66% of all shot types from middle areas. We know from previous games that Southampton like to get a lot of shots of during games average of 14 at home with a conversion rate of 8%. What that means is they basically score a goal at home every game.
As you can imagine Southampton have a real weapon in Ward-Prowse and look to give him as many shooting opportunities as possible. The Ref will need to be strong during the game as Southampton will look to go down in dangerous areas, especially looking ones where the ball is high and the defender to be coming over the top.
When Southampton go in front, a strength this season has been holding off the opposition and protecting the lead. Forest should expect Southampton to attack from the start as they will to impose themselves over us. If Forest had ride out the first 20 mins of the game and even push them back they will become more nervous and the crowd will start to get on their back which has been the case in most of the match so far. In fact Southampton have lost 50% of their home matches this season when they have been nullified in the first 20 mins of a match.
As mentioned in the beginning Southampton’s weakness has been dealing with wide area attacks. They have had the most attacking wide dribbles completed against them so far this season. For this reason a expect to see Forest continue with the split striker set up to take full advantage of the spaces left. However to make full use of the space forest will need to move the ball faster back to front and even bypass the midfield transition.
Southampton have not kept a clean sheet at home so far and concede most goals right after halftime. This has been put down to focus following a hard and fast first half. This will be an area the new manager will be looking to improve and it might just mean we don’t see such a frantic first 45mins from them. This could help us as we do struggle to get to grips with games early so with a slower start to both halves I would expect us to get an earlier foot hold in the game.
Most shots against Southampton come in the box area (61% of shots) as the defence are fast to step out in order to block long range efforts. Unfortunately for forest they were getting done by the cute through pass and the manager has noticed this and moved to a back three so less central space has been left if one has to challenge the long range effort. That said the space has now increased to wider areas and we do have players who like to try the curling shots rather than the power drive from distance also means with the split strikers we should get more chances to drive in from wider areas.
This is going to be a very tight game and I suspect 1 goal will win it. If Forest can stop Southampton getting the knock downs from the longer passes then they should have enough to control the possession in the game but the question is can we get that away goal. Most likely outcome (46%) 0-0
