+- COYR NOTTINGHAM FOREST FORUM (https://coyrforestforum.co.uk)
+-- Forum: NOTTINGHAM FOREST - A REBEL CLUB IN A REBEL CITY (https://coyrforestforum.co.uk/forumdisplay.php?fid=6)
+--- Forum: Nottingham Forest Fan Talk - Forest All Over The World (https://coyrforestforum.co.uk/forumdisplay.php?fid=7)
+--- Thread: Are We Going Down? (/showthread.php?tid=1729)
RE: Are We Going Down? - stirred - 27-10-2025
Look at the squads. Our squad is far stronger than Wolves, West Ham and Leeds for starters. And I could keep going. So take that 3.
So then the question is can Dyche get our squad clicking.
So I think very unlikely we go down if Dyche gets the squad to perform at par.
RE: Are We Going Down? - TwoStar - 27-10-2025
(27-10-2025, 08:13 PM)Cornish forest Wrote:(27-10-2025, 08:01 PM)I’m TwoStar Wrote:(27-10-2025, 07:48 PM)Cornish forest Wrote: The BBC showed a stat the other day that I can’t find again, that showed the likelihood of staying up with a given points total after 10 games.
Long story short, relegation is very likely for us. Fail to beat Man Utd (the 10th game) and it’s almost nailed on.
We were 98% likely to qualify for the ECL last season with just a few games to play. I think nailed on for relegation is perhaps a little over pessimistic with 28 still to go.
To be fair I’m not trying to be either optimistic or pessimistic, just the stats with no emotion involved do not make for good reading.
And that’s without mentioning the stats of only scoring 1 league goal since the opening day.
However only one team has avoided relegation from 5 points after 10 games…. Us.
Does that make more or less likely we could do it again?
Ha ha - I think I'll go for more likely!
My opinion is we have a strong squad, a savvy manager and hopefully a City Ground that gets behind them as per Porto.
On paper we have more than enough to get out of trouble - although I'm well aware it's what happens on the pitch that counts.
But I try to stay optimistic because it's way more fun that way!
RE: Are We Going Down? - stirred - 27-10-2025
(27-10-2025, 07:48 PM)Cornish forest Wrote: The BBC showed a stat the other day that I can’t find again, that showed the likelihood of staying up with a given points total after 10 games.
Long story short, relegation is very likely for us. Fail to beat Man Utd (the 10th game) and it’s almost nailed on.
It’s not a likelihood, it’s just how many times it has happened in the past, with no context of current conditions. A rare set of circumstances have led us here, the previous cases are different circumstances. Fundamentally we have better players than several clubs, comfortably.
RE: Are We Going Down? - Cornish forest - 27-10-2025
(27-10-2025, 08:25 PM)stirred Wrote:I wouldn’t say it’s a rare set of circumstances. We can’t score for toffee and we leak goals like a sieve.(27-10-2025, 07:48 PM)Cornish forest Wrote: The BBC showed a stat the other day that I can’t find again, that showed the likelihood of staying up with a given points total after 10 games.
Long story short, relegation is very likely for us. Fail to beat Man Utd (the 10th game) and it’s almost nailed on.
It’s not a likelihood, it’s just how many times it has happened in the past, with no context of current conditions. A rare set of circumstances have led us here, the previous cases are different circumstances. Fundamentally we have better players than several clubs, comfortably.
I’d say that’s a common set of circumstances that occur to most teams in the bottom 3, hence why they find themselves in the bottom 3.
Better players ? At the start of the season I would say I agree with you. Now I’m not so sure.
How on earth on paper at least does a midfield of Luiz, Anderson and MGW find itself where it is?
RE: Are We Going Down? - wassy04 - 27-10-2025
(27-10-2025, 08:35 PM)Cornish forest Wrote:(27-10-2025, 08:25 PM)stirred Wrote:I wouldn’t say it’s a rare set of circumstances. We can’t score for toffee and we leak goals like a sieve.(27-10-2025, 07:48 PM)Cornish forest Wrote: The BBC showed a stat the other day that I can’t find again, that showed the likelihood of staying up with a given points total after 10 games.
Long story short, relegation is very likely for us. Fail to beat Man Utd (the 10th game) and it’s almost nailed on.
It’s not a likelihood, it’s just how many times it has happened in the past, with no context of current conditions. A rare set of circumstances have led us here, the previous cases are different circumstances. Fundamentally we have better players than several clubs, comfortably.
I’d say that’s a common set of circumstances that occur to most teams in the bottom 3, hence why they find themselves in the bottom 3.
Better players ? At the start of the season I wouldn’t say agree with you. Now I’m not so sure.
How on earth on paper at least does a midfield of Luiz, Anderson and MGW find itself where it is?
Regardless, these stats will be skewed as normally the teams in that position are likely to be teams like Burnley etc that have just come up or perhaps someone that just stayed up the previous season.
Suspect the stats would look quite a lot different if you only looked at teams that had finished top half the previous season.
RE: Are We Going Down? - DeesideRed - 27-10-2025
Id be concerned if I was a Fulham fan tbh
Manager not signing new deal, ageing squad who are struggling. One to watch
RE: Are We Going Down? - stirred - 27-10-2025
(27-10-2025, 08:35 PM)Cornish forest Wrote:(27-10-2025, 08:25 PM)stirred Wrote:I wouldn’t say it’s a rare set of circumstances. We can’t score for toffee and we leak goals like a sieve.(27-10-2025, 07:48 PM)Cornish forest Wrote: The BBC showed a stat the other day that I can’t find again, that showed the likelihood of staying up with a given points total after 10 games.
Long story short, relegation is very likely for us. Fail to beat Man Utd (the 10th game) and it’s almost nailed on.
It’s not a likelihood, it’s just how many times it has happened in the past, with no context of current conditions. A rare set of circumstances have led us here, the previous cases are different circumstances. Fundamentally we have better players than several clubs, comfortably.
I’d say that’s a common set of circumstances that occur to most teams in the bottom 3, hence why they find themselves in the bottom 3.
Better players ? At the start of the season I would say I agree with you. Now I’m not so sure.
How on earth on paper at least does a midfield of Luiz, Anderson and MGW find itself where it is?
If you think our players are bad, just think back to Hughton. Almost everyone was saying how the players weren’t good enough, but it was the coach that was the problem not the players. They nearly got relegated the season before then had 1 point from the first 7 matches. We got rid of Hughton and a good one in and the players could play again. Similar thing now, the players are good enough. So can Dyche get them playing again?
RE: Are We Going Down? - wassy04 - 27-10-2025
(27-10-2025, 09:49 PM)DeesideRed Wrote: Id be concerned if I was a Fulham fan tbh
Manager not signing new deal, ageing squad who are struggling. One to watch
Definitely in the long term yes but short term they've lost to Newcastle, Arsenal, Villa and Bournemouth. Three of which were away and they led in two of the games. The home game was Arsenal, I doubt they'd have expected tons more points. They'll be fine.
RE: Are We Going Down? - Cornish forest - 27-10-2025
(27-10-2025, 10:08 PM)stirred Wrote:(27-10-2025, 08:35 PM)Cornish forest Wrote:(27-10-2025, 08:25 PM)stirred Wrote:I wouldn’t say it’s a rare set of circumstances. We can’t score for toffee and we leak goals like a sieve.(27-10-2025, 07:48 PM)Cornish forest Wrote: The BBC showed a stat the other day that I can’t find again, that showed the likelihood of staying up with a given points total after 10 games.
Long story short, relegation is very likely for us. Fail to beat Man Utd (the 10th game) and it’s almost nailed on.
It’s not a likelihood, it’s just how many times it has happened in the past, with no context of current conditions. A rare set of circumstances have led us here, the previous cases are different circumstances. Fundamentally we have better players than several clubs, comfortably.
I’d say that’s a common set of circumstances that occur to most teams in the bottom 3, hence why they find themselves in the bottom 3.
Better players ? At the start of the season I would say I agree with you. Now I’m not so sure.
How on earth on paper at least does a midfield of Luiz, Anderson and MGW find itself where it is?
If you think our players are bad, just think back to Hughton. Almost everyone was saying how the players weren’t good enough, but it was the coach that was the problem not the players. They nearly got relegated the season before then had 1 point from the first 7 matches. We got rid of Hughton and a good one in and the players could play again. Similar thing now, the players are good enough. So can Dyche get them playing again?
When we replaced Hughton the response was immediate , 2 nil win away at Huddersfield if I remember.
I didn’t expect a result against Bournemouth but I did expect a performance.
The next 2 home games will show us I think where we are.
We need positive results in both.
Lose both and we’re done.
RE: Are We Going Down? - JohnG - 27-10-2025
(27-10-2025, 10:27 PM)Cornish forest Wrote:(27-10-2025, 10:08 PM)stirred Wrote:(27-10-2025, 08:35 PM)Cornish forest Wrote:(27-10-2025, 08:25 PM)stirred Wrote:I wouldn’t say it’s a rare set of circumstances. We can’t score for toffee and we leak goals like a sieve.(27-10-2025, 07:48 PM)Cornish forest Wrote: The BBC showed a stat the other day that I can’t find again, that showed the likelihood of staying up with a given points total after 10 games.
Long story short, relegation is very likely for us. Fail to beat Man Utd (the 10th game) and it’s almost nailed on.
It’s not a likelihood, it’s just how many times it has happened in the past, with no context of current conditions. A rare set of circumstances have led us here, the previous cases are different circumstances. Fundamentally we have better players than several clubs, comfortably.
I’d say that’s a common set of circumstances that occur to most teams in the bottom 3, hence why they find themselves in the bottom 3.
Better players ? At the start of the season I would say I agree with you. Now I’m not so sure.
How on earth on paper at least does a midfield of Luiz, Anderson and MGW find itself where it is?
If you think our players are bad, just think back to Hughton. Almost everyone was saying how the players weren’t good enough, but it was the coach that was the problem not the players. They nearly got relegated the season before then had 1 point from the first 7 matches. We got rid of Hughton and a good one in and the players could play again. Similar thing now, the players are good enough. So can Dyche get them playing again?
When we replaced Hughton the response was immediate , 2 nil win away at Huddersfield if I remember.
I didn’t expect a result against Bournemouth but I did expect a performance.
The next 2 home games will show us I think where we are.
We need positive results in both.
Lose both and we’re done.
Huddersfield was Steven Reid as caretaker manager, I think Cooper was in charge for Millwall which we drew thanks to a cross going in. Although we did dominate most of the game.
Dyche won against Porto which on paper are probably the strongest team we have in Europa league phase. Bournemouth we have not beaten since before promotion, the last time we did I think was in the Championship we had VERY low posession in a home game and snuck it.
AND they are absolutely flying at the moment.
RE: Are We Going Down? - JWJW - 28-10-2025
We are currently in the same position Crystal Palace were at the same time last season.
Say no more..............it is ridiculous all this panic posting and worrying.
RE: Are We Going Down? - ToryTom - 28-10-2025
(28-10-2025, 03:28 AM)JWJW Wrote: We are currently in the same position Crystal Palace were at the same time last season.
Say no more..............it is ridiculous all this panic posting and worrying.
Some significant differences with Palace. We are into our third manager this season with changes in playing style and preferred personnel that goes with that. They kept with the one manager. Their performances were improving and ours are going in the opposite direction. The performance at Bournemouth was in my opinion at least as bad as the thrashings we had at Fulham and Leicester under Cooper and also this season the promoted clubs are much better than those that went up the previous season making it much more competitive. Also Palace did not have the distraction of European football. Make no mistake we are in trouble.