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RE: NFFC Financial Talk - Salvatore Matrecano - 04-03-2022
Keiran Maguires superb annual analysis of Forest Accounts for 20/21 season ie Hughton in charge, no crowds and a summer of insane transfer activity offset by the Matty Cash sale.
Loss for season £15.5m which is our P&S figure
Total debt £203m - assume pretty well all of that owed to EM
Wages still 200% of income
Covid hit us for £28m
Scary stuff the headline figures but hopefully we are moving to being run on a more sustainable basis and we are lucky to have an owner who is prepared to carry the loss
RE: NFFC Financial Talk - wassy04 - 04-03-2022
(04-03-2022, 10:37 AM)Salvatore Matrecano Wrote: Keiran Maguires superb annual analysis of Forest Accounts for 20/21 season ie Hughton in charge, no crowds and a summer of insane transfer activity offset by the Matty Cash sale.
Loss for season £15.5m which is our P&S figure
Total debt £203m - assume pretty well all of that owed to EM
Wages still 200% of income
Covid hit us for £28m
Scary stuff the headline figures but hopefully we are moving to being run on a more sustainable basis and we are lucky to have an owner who is prepared to carry the loss
I'm not sure the loan write off can be included for P&S actually. Although there will be some academy/infrastructure costs we can exclude.
RE: NFFC Financial Talk - wassy04 - 04-03-2022
Does anyone know the actual FFP rules? I'm struggling to find anything online, the only article I can find suggests you're allowed 5m to be taken off per year for the last two years. However that would still imply -39m over three years. Based on that I'm struggling to see how we're not failing this
RE: NFFC Financial Talk - Salvatore Matrecano - 04-03-2022
Same with me Wassy the rules do seem impenetrable unless you are a real expert.I was guessing that we are around £15m loss this year same as last year. The problem I believe was 2019 when it was £34m? which is still in the 3 year cycle.
How rules have been relaxed for Covid I dont know unless we can deduct the whole amount claimed which would be handy. We are forecasting a Covid loss of £12m in 2022, greater than the £8m actual loss for 20 and 21? Is that some creative accounting?
RE: NFFC Financial Talk - Sausage Roll - 04-03-2022
This thread is interesting and explains it a bit more.
RE: NFFC Financial Talk - wassy04 - 04-03-2022
(04-03-2022, 12:45 PM)Sausage Roll Wrote: This thread is interesting and explains it a bit more.
Yeah I thought I'd heard something like this, so essentially the last two years are getting combined into one and we get to keep 2017/18 where we had a much smaller loss which is how we are within the limits. Can't find this actually written down anywhere though to explain it.
RE: NFFC Financial Talk - wassy04 - 04-03-2022
This is from the EFL website, makes more sense now.
1.10.1 Season 2020/21 only, the P&S Calculation shall be the aggregation of:
(a) the mean of the Adjusted Earnings Before Tax of T and T-1; and
(b) the Adjusted Earnings Before Tax of T-2; and
© the Adjusted Earnings Before Tax of T-3,
1.10.2 Season 2021/2022 only, the P&S Calculation shall be the aggregation of:
(a) the Adjusted Earnings Before Tac of T; and
(b) the mean of the Adjusted Earnings Before Tax of T-1 and T-2; and
© the Adjusted Earnings Before Tax of T-3,
1.10.3 Season 2022/23 only, the P&S Calculation shall be the aggregation of:
(a) the Adjusted Earnings Before Tax of T; and
(b) the Adjusted Earnings Before Tax of T-1; and
© the mean of the Adjusted Earnings Before Tax of T-2 and T-3.
RE: NFFC Financial Talk - Salvatore Matrecano - 04-03-2022
Oh I see…I understand it perfectly now…
RE: NFFC Financial Talk - wassy04 - 04-03-2022
Ok so I think I understand it now, we're allowed total losses of 39m, split across three years. However for the purposes of this calculation 19/20 & 20/21 are being combined and averaged out. This essentially means we get an extra 13m loss for the three year period. It's also doubly beneficial for us as our loss in 2017/18 was only 11m before FFP exclusions (which are not published)
Swiss Ramble estimates that it's probably around 5m a year exclusions (which is infrastructure, academy, women's team etc). So on that logic, I reckon we are as follows:
17/18 - 6m
18/19 - 20m
19/20 & 20/21 - 15m & 15m (minus 5m per year for covid allowances) - 10m total
This would make us estimated 36m which is 3m under the 39m threshold. Seems like we've really benefitted from the new rules, I wonder if Randall had any contribution to writing these.
However, on the above calculations next year will be really tough. Lets assume the losses remain the same except we remove the Cash sale. So we'd be looking at roughly 27m operating loss maybe. Make that 25 when you include the covid loss, even if you take off 5m for Carvalho sale (which is excessive) that's still 20m. That would put us around 50m so 11m over the allowable losses. I'm fairly sure you can include the sales from the summer window and backdate to meet FFP (which is generous) so based on that we will need to make some big sales in the summer or fail FFP at the end of 2023 season.
RE: NFFC Financial Talk - Tricky - 04-03-2022
[i]Wassy? Are you the frikken Oracle by any chance?
RE: NFFC Financial Talk - Salvatore Matrecano - 04-03-2022
Thanks Wassy
I guess its the last line which is all you need to read.
Think we all knew and accepted that and if we dont go up then Brennan is on his way regardless. Hopefully even with only 1 year left on his contract we can get over £11m and still have some funds to get a replacement or two.
RE: NFFC Financial Talk - wassy04 - 04-03-2022
(04-03-2022, 01:36 PM)Tricky Wrote: [i]Wassy? Are you the frikken Oracle by any chance?
Haha I'm just sad and like reading about sports finance!