Season 2019/20 Can We Finally Go Up?

[wassy04]

Well, West Brom aren't losing to Hull at home. Similar to a bad run they had earlier in the season. Played a dross team, hammered them then went on a run. So personally think Brom will see it out. But my reasoning for Brentford is that i think they're a really good team. Yes, looking at the stats, draw, wins and losses, not a great deal separate us but for me, if we don't have Sow playing against more tougher opposition then i think we will struggle. If we pick up 6 points against Bristol City and Derby without Sow I'll come back and apologies, but i don't see that happening.

But i do see Brentford picking up Maximum points  as the weeks roll on by pushing Brom all the way. Just my opinion of course.

Yep, I agree with most of that. West Brom are the team, no doubt. Their quality will come through soon enough and they'll stroll in in the end, just like they did in the winter when they pulled away. 

Re Sow, we've played 2 games without him since the re-start and very nearly got 6 points, so it's not all that bad ATM. I think Steve Hodge said that a win yesterday, followed by a win on Wednesday and then maybe a draw at the sheep dip will see us comfortably in the top six. I'd go along with that. Realistically, we forget about top 2, stay focused, gently get Sow reintroduced back in the side and make sure we stay comfortably in the top 6. If we can end the season on form and focused, rather than having expended all our energy busting a gut on a late surge to get to 6th, then we'll be in a good place. 

Re Brentford, I think the media like the idea of a Brentford type team being successful but their record against top 6 sides is quite poor. They play attractive football yes, have a quaint old-school ground, and (as seems to be a theme in the media these days) receive greater exposure due to being located in London. I think people get carried away because of those things. Don't get me wrong, they're decent, but I don't buy this idea that they're somehow destined for promotion and we're not.

Sky studios and headquarters are at Gillette Corner, a stone's throw from Brentfords ground and even nearer to their new ground. 

Brentford is actually a decent club whose real supporters are a great bunch. It's the keyboard warriors and their attitude that they play the best football ever seen and never dive/kick anyone ever that annoy everyone. We all have a few like that, it just seems they have a very active bunch of them.

I saw the sky coverage of their game against West Brom on Friday. Contrast to our game yesterday. They were massively positive about them in the pre-match comments while I thought their usual negative stuff cam out about us, such as if Grabban gets injured there's problems, don't create enough chances etc etc. As I said above, we're just two points behind them and have the best record of the lot for results against top 6 teams.

I think you're right to an extent, they're a nice neutral team with a good back story playing attacking football. On the other hand they have statistically the best attack and second best defence, comfortably best GD. So clearly they are a good team, compare their 34 GD to our 12. Every time I've seen them I've been surprised they're not top. Just my opinion of course

[GaribaldiRED]

Some very interesting stats and reflections. Very good read.

[jurgen rober]

I think what it does prove is that SL is very tactically aware and knows exactly what sort of players he needs to fit into his system.

[Salvatore Matrecano]

Thats a great article. This line really stands out.

“Forest aren’t in a promotion battle despite only having more of the ball in 14 of their 39 Championship matches so far; they’re in a promotion battle because they’re rarely ahead in possession statistics.“

It definitely reads like the author may be a fan though!

[Ciscokid]

Thanks Gari for finding that article and sharing it. The writer has great football insight and has analysed Sabri's system brilliantly. Great read.

[GaribaldiRED]

That was my first reaction as well. He has to be a Forest fan but then again the stats back the arguments and conclusions quite well. Forest are a team that seem to be very comfortable with defending.

[wassy04]

That was my first reaction as well. He has to be a Forest fan but then again the stats back the arguments and conclusions quite well. Forest are a team that seem to be very comfortable with defending.

Yep it does seem effective, just not the easiest to watch as a fan! 

A reason why no crowds will help though as the players can feel more comfortable playing this why without the crowd getting edgy.

[wassy04]

I know people will point to yet another late goal conceded but just looked back and all bar 2 or off our wins have been where we've been defending one goal leads in the last 10 mins. I just think we've reached the limit of what our squad/tactics can achieve.

Not a bad thing though, might be enough to take us up via playoffs. I think the real challenge will be if we dont win playoffs, how to become slightly more expansive so we're not defending a one goal lead every game with minutes to play. Without giving up our excellent defensive resolve

[Plymouth red]

I know people will point to yet another late goal conceded but just looked back and all bar 2 or off our wins have been where we've been defending one goal leads in the last 10 mins. I just think we've reached the limit of what our squad/tactics can achieve.

Not a bad thing though, might be enough to take us up via playoffs. I think the real challenge will be if we dont win playoffs, how to become slightly more expansive so we're not defending a one goal lead every game with minutes to play. Without giving up our excellent defensive resolve

I do agree. It doesn't make it any easier when things like this happen but for this squad to make the play off would, in my opinion, be a big achievement. I had us as a mid table side this year when season kicked off.

[wassy04]

I know people will point to yet another late goal conceded but just looked back and all bar 2 or off our wins have been where we've been defending one goal leads in the last 10 mins. I just think we've reached the limit of what our squad/tactics can achieve.

Not a bad thing though, might be enough to take us up via playoffs. I think the real challenge will be if we dont win playoffs, how to become slightly more expansive so we're not defending a one goal lead every game with minutes to play. Without giving up our excellent defensive resolve

I do agree. It doesn't make it any easier when things like this happen but for this squad to make the play off would, in my opinion, be a big achievement. I had us as a mid table side this year when season kicked off.

Not sure how great a stat it is but if you look at next expected goals we're 8th which seems about right. I think it'll be a great effort to make playoffs, just need to find a way of being more expansive vs the weaker teams at home

[ozzyten10]

For us to be battling with the best with a mid table budget then it speaks volumes. Fulham for example spent over 100m 2 years ago and managed to keep hold of most people f their better players and add to them with knockeart caballero etc. I look at stoke too - millions spent on decent players on paper.

We’ve got a great mix of homegrown, shrewd signings and frees, foreign market etc...

Playoffs is manager of the year stuff from Lamouchi

[wassy04]

For us to be battling with the best with a mid table budget then it speaks volumes. Fulham for example spent over 100m 2 years ago and managed to keep hold of most people f their better players and add to them with knockeart caballero etc. I look at stoke too - millions spent on decent players on paper.

We’ve got a great mix of homegrown, shrewd signings and frees, foreign market etc...

Playoffs is manager of the year stuff from Lamouchi

Think Bielsa might just nick that one but will be next in line if we do make playoffs. Maybe Paul Cook if Wigan survive despite the points deduction too!