Southampton - Nottingham Forest

[The reds]

Whatever we might think of their shithousery, they looked quite a vibrant side against Newcastle regardless of sending off. Certainly gave a better account of themselves than we did 2 summers ago up there.

1st home game back in prem.

I'm nervous. I can see our season starting with three one all draws having watched Bournemouth game back.  Co-commentator Efan Ekokou called it saying something like "Forest give you a chance as they don't run away with the game"

That’s Southampton they look good on the ball. We can beat these tomorrow.

[Mcforest]

This weekend Forest take on a Southampton team still riding the crest of the promotion wave and with this being the first home game for them you can expect the wave of optimism to continue throughout the team. But with that a side what can we expect from them and why they are a much hard opposition than the last time we met.

In Russell Martin Southampton have a manager well known for his modern and progressive approach, Martin has implemented a distinctive style that has transformed the team’s dynamics, which is based on multi formations during the game.

Southampton have a starting formation of 3-5-2 however in a Low Build up you will see it change to a 4-2-2-2 formation. They use two dropping number-tens and two wingers, looking to attract opposition players, opening up the space in behind. The aim of this is to ask questions the opposition centre-backs, forcing them to make difficult decisions. Do they move up and follow the number-tens or not. If they do follow the two 10’s into the space they leave space behind them allowing for the winger to gain a 1v1 against the fullbacks. However, If they do not push up the number-tens, a numerical superiority gets created in the central midfield area. It is very similar to what forest try to do with the double pivot in the centre of midfield and our centre back, there box of superiority however is much higher up the pitch than ours, we do it around the 18 yard compared to centre circle of Southampton.

In a high build up Southampton switch dynamics again and are regularly seen in a 2-3-5 formation with inverted fullbacks and a centre back stepping into the defensive midfield 3. This again allows Southampton to build centrally which is their preferred method of attack, a massive 40% of attacking build up come through the central areas. This central high build up also provides fantastic conditions in defensive transitions, allowing more players to press when they lose the ball. Another purpose for keeping most of the players central is that it lessens the space between them. This shortens the length of the passes, which naturally shortens the time between passes. This means the opposition players will have less time to push up and press, giving the Southampton players more time and control.

Southampton can be described as a short one touch passing team who like the ball in the opposition half and regularly have 38% of their possession in the final third. Most of Southampton’s build up play is based on the third man principle this means using a third player to reach a free player whose passing lane is blocked. However they are not afraid to switch the ball if they can create a 2v1 situation by pulling the other teams players across the pitch to create a trap or close those passing lanes. You will see Southampton always leave two players away from the play incase and hope the other team lose focus and forget they are there.

When it comes to creating chances they aim to have the chance created within the 18 yard box via the wide areas with underlaps from the attacking midfielders or sometimes the inverted fullbacks. Given the types of strikers they have now gone and got I would expect this to change to more through balls between the centre backs. This is again based on their strength in numbers centrally and the ability of the running forwards now in their possession.

Without the ball Southampton do use a high press and keep a high back line squeeing the opposition and with the low inverted full backs it means the centre backs are not without support for breaks down the wings. This is the polar opposite to forest who’s fullback are pushed high to aid the attack and with a mid press system in place the support for the centre backs comes from one defensive midfielder.

Without the ball Southampton will either be in a 4-1-3-1 formation or 5-3-1-1 depending on the transition. One thing you will see with them is they go man for man marking and have players follow rather than passing them off in the zonal fashion which is more common in football.

Other info
In the last 6 games Forest have won 4 times compared to Southampton 2
Forest have a xG against score of 1.2 when playing away from home
Southampton have a xG against of 0.9 when at home
Forest xG away from home is 1.8
Southampton xG at home is 1.9
Southampton have a 70% of scoring in this match and a 40% chance of a clean sheet.
Forest have a 60% scoring percent and 30% chance of keeping a clean sheet

It will be a very close match but based purely on the stats, squad improvements and historical data Southampton are 11 points more likely to gain a result at the weekend with a expected score line of 2-1. Personally the stats and points system available are slightly out of alignment as they include last season when Southampton were flying high in the championship. That said will be very close no doubt and i think a draw is more likely.

[Mist From The Trent]

Sels

Williams
Milenkovic
Murillo
Aina

Sangare
Anderson

Elanga
MGW
CHO

Wood.

Hopefully we can get a win on the board, doesn't matter how!

[Joe Baker Legend]

Well, it looks like we are playing in the Man City kit today.......

[RyanR]

On the train across from Dorset now. Quite apprehensive about this one today. Could only manage to get a ticket in the home end too which doesn’t help the nerves!

[Tricky]

Well, it looks like we are playing in the Man City kit today.......

lets hope we play like them!!!

[Joe Baker Legend]

Team News..........

[Joe Baker Legend]

The Opposition.....

[Forest1970]

Is there a sweepstake on how many dives Brereton will make today ??

[nffc93]

Is there a sweepstake on how many dives Brereton will make today ??

He shouldn't even be playing after that last week

[Forest1970]

Is there a sweepstake on how many dives Brereton will make today ??

He shouldn't even be playing after that last week

Absolutely, Its shite like that that really gives football a bad name and after watching last week I can't say how disgusted I was with the lad.

[Mcforest]

Bold line up. Going to be the battle of the midfield this match.