Next Few Games

[wassy04]

Imagine if we need to get something at Palace on the last day then Wassy!

I'll just spend the day/week in a dark room silently rocking.

Or spend the preceding weeks trying to convince myself why another year in the championship will be great for all of us.

[DeesideRed]

United have shown 3 times now they have our number. not expecting anything from that.

As people saying, first 2 games are very much DO NOT LOSE

[JollyLolly]

Go out to win EVERY game left to play from the start and accumulate as many points as possible, do that we stay in the PL

[Salvatore Matrecano]

We currently have 26 points, we have to assume we need 38 to stay up, anything less is wishful thinking.

So 12 points needed, where are they coming from?
Most likely scenario is

Wolves H 3
Leeds A 1
Villa A 1
Brighton H 3
Southampton H 3
Palace A 1

Too optimistic? Dont like the odds of beating Brighton or picking up a point at Villa?
Well if not them then your remaining choices are:
Man Utd H
Liverpool A
Brentford A
Chelsea A
Arsenal H
Fancy getting a point out of that lot? Nor do I.

In answer to your original question about the next 6 games by my reckoning we need 8 points from them to stay up.

[Sniffer Dog (Admin)]

Yes but 8 points is a massive ask in my opinion.

[wassy04]

We currently have 26 points, we have to assume we need 38 to stay up, anything less is wishful thinking.

So 12 points needed, where are they coming from?
Most likely scenario is

Wolves H 3
Leeds A 1
Villa A 1
Brighton H 3
Southampton H 3
Palace A 1

Too optimistic? Dont like the odds of beating Brighton or picking up a point at Villa?
Well if not them then your remaining choices are:
Man Utd H
Liverpool A
Brentford A
Chelsea A
Arsenal H
Fancy getting a point out of that lot? Nor do I.

In answer to your original question about the next 6 games by my reckoning we need 8 points from them to stay up.

Lets hope we don't need 38!

I said after last weekend that I think we need at least one unexpected win.

We have a great record at home, so could maybe scrap a win vs Utd who have a lot of matches. Brentford away is theoretically winnable and perhaps they're phoning it in by that point and Toney gets banned by then. Chelsea not exactly tearing it up right now either. Arsenal could need a point to win the title or something so could be in bottle it mode. 

It does feel like we're really struggling if we don't win against Wolves.

[JollyLolly]

Looking at the remaining fixtures and the way we have been performing of late, its going to take huge and instant improvement to escape the drop. Not really looking good but we live in hope! I said on here some weeks ago that SC was leaving it very late to change his attitude to playing the game and would regret not going for it at that point in time, we have a lot of hard work over the next 2 months plus a lot of good luck is required to change our fortunes!

[nffc93]

How many points from the next 6 games then?

Wolves (H)         
Leeds (A)         
Aston Villa (A)   
Man United (H) 
Liverpool (A)       
Brighton (H)

I'm gonna say 4

This shows what a tough job we have on our hands now.

If we got 4 points from the next 6 games that would give us a total of 6 points from a possible 36 points. Would that be enough? Of course it would depend to a certain extent how the teams around us do as well.

It would also give us 30 points with 5 games remaining. Hard to know whether that's going to be enough. 

I don't think we're going to enjoy this run-in, I was stressed enough during the Newcastle game. Wolves is going to be unbearable.

Unless something miraculous happens after this break, sadly don't see us having enough about us to get to 38 points which i think is the number needed.

[McDurban]

They need 6 from the next lot. If they can't they're gonna be in the dwang.

[Reds73]

No way is it as high as 38 this season.
I have done the prediction table doing loads of different scenarios, and because the bottom 9 are playing each other slot of weeks, 36 points will almost certainly be enough.

We need 10 points.
2 wins and 4 draws or 3 wins and 1 draw.

Beat Wolves and Southampton
Draw Brighton, Leeds, Palace, Brentford.

Not going to be easy by any stretch

[zicorice]

Whilst getting Villa tickets today, I thought as they are bobbling around in midtable  I'm really hoping we can nick something there...anyway one game at a time.

Wolves will be a draw......

[wassy04]

I read a model today that has currently got us as 2nd favourites to go down. Southampton were comfortably most likely and Bournemouth marginally ahead of us. Unsurprisingly, Everton are next favourite.

The interesting part was that Wolves were next on the list. These probabilities are based on a number of factors including underlying performance and fixtures.

I think you could imagine that those probabilities will swing much closer if we were to beat Wolves. It feels like a season defining game for both teams. No pressure...