West Ham United - Nottingham Forest

[Sniffer Dog (Admin)]

To be played on Saturday 25th February 2023.

At the London Stadium.

Kick off is at 3pm.

COYR!

[Paplane]

This is a really difficult game. West Ham need the win desperately.

[Plymouth red]

I would take a draw. Doubt it will be a high scoring affair considering we are two of the lowest scorers in the league.

Cue a 5-4 thriller

[wassy04]

This is a really difficult game. West Ham need the win desperately.

Rather play West Ham away than 15 or so other teams! 

Good opportunity to get some away points, I watched their boring game with Spurs expecting another tight one. Bowen is the only player that looked dangerous though.

I fancy a 2nd away win!

[Mcforest]

West Ham like to play a 4-2-3-1 based on a win pass % system, which means they play balls into areas that generate a high chance of winning the ball rather than ball to feet and trying to work between the lines of the oppositions set up. Some would call it more direct passing but it is a bit more technical than that as it is designed that during the pattern of play certain areas will have more space created i.e controlling the ball in the central areas brings the opposition into the condensed area. So by taking high risks and leaving one or two players wide and high on the right West Ham can then change the odds of winning ball in behind the left full back from 30% win to 64%. Also note that this system isn’t like the direct pass where they wait for an opening to occur on either side it is the pattern itself. So to quickly explain the pattern could be a 6 or 7 pass reverse diamond with two of the midfielders setting up to play that ball in behind and on the 6th pass no matter what it goes into that space for that player(s) who they have risked not being able to cover or support if the ball was turned over or be involved in the build up.

West ham use this system well to create a lot of crosses into the box. I will say generally the crosses are not early balls into a running in striker, they prefer the winger to drive the ball forward to the by-line and hold the ball up before crossing, creating a standing jump for the defenders against a player coming in with momentum. You will also see that once the winger has the ball both full backs will break and leave the defensive line to support. 54% of the West Ham goals come via this route so forest should be focused on stopping the cross by doubling up in wide areas when possible. If Forest stop the cross or even win that % pass you will have seen above I mention about the full backs leaving the defensive line. Well what is interesting is when they go the opposite side full back will look to go beyond all midfielders and the winger to act like a second striker because that wide player has already moved inside for the passing pattern. The effect is right at that moment West Ham are at a high risk of a counter attack on the far side of the pitch. West Ham have a terrible record of not being able to defend those through balls this season and have an even worse record of conceding if that through ball is made to a player that will run with pace. The only issue I would have is if Forest do look to bring quickly at every chance they get it will see the game get stretched and more time created for the patterns of West Ham to be played and they are not afraid to shoot from distance and often.

West Ham do run out of ideas when attacking in most games and if Forest can keep them quite and contained we will soon see them fall back on the use of longer rushed passes and Aerial battles. Plus with being at home the crowd who are already questioning the manager will no doubt start to get on the players backs in a must win fixture for them.

The importance of this game to them could see them move from an not overly aggressive team to one that will fly into tackles, might help them get the fans on side. However I see a couple of early bookings causing them real issues as they are not mentally strong in these situations.

West Ham United's home form is very mixed currently with the following results : 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses. There goal exp at home is 1.09 scoring every 83 mins and their goal against is 1.18 conceding every 76mins.

36% chance that both teams score when West ham play at home

Most likely to score between 21-30 mins and 41-50 mins

Most likey to concede 41-70 mins

Average 14 shots per match with 5 on target

Most common score line 1-0 when West Ham play at home

West Ham United vs Nottingham Forest's head to head record shows that of the 5 meetings they've had, West Ham United has won 3 times and Nottingham Forest has won 2 times. 0 fixtures between West Ham United and Nottingham Forest has ended in a draw.

80% chance more than 2 goals will be scored when these two team face each other

60% that both teams will score when these two teams play

64% chance that West Ham will win this match

Most likely score 2-1

[ozzyten10]

Big match this. Think Brennan will be key on the right here. They are a very proficient side with good physicality and lots of premiership experience. Their form is pap though. They have struggled for goals with Antonio looking a shadow of his former self, scamacca mis firing and Bowen whilst full of endeavour- not much end product. Pacheta is an outstanding player but not really got going and has recently got injured. Watching them against spurs yesterday - lots of huff and puff but very little chances.
They battered us and lost 1-0 at home. They are very pragmatic and can see their fans getting grumbly if not winning by 70 minutes. Hoping for a draw but think they will have a bit too much for us given our shocking away form.
Hoping Shelvey makes a difference to our ball retention away from home.

[wassy04]

Big match this. Think Brennan will be key on the right here. They are a very proficient side with good physicality and lots of premiership experience. Their form is pap though. They have struggled for goals with Antonio looking a shadow of his former self, scamacca mis firing and Bowen whilst full of endeavour- not much end product. Pacheta is an outstanding player but not really got going and has recently got injured. Watching them against spurs yesterday - lots of huff and puff but very little chances.
They battered us and lost 1-0 at home. They are very pragmatic and can see their fans getting grumbly if not winning by 70 minutes. Hoping for a draw but think they will have a bit too much for us given our shocking away form.
Hoping Shelvey makes a difference to our ball retention away from home.

Not sure how you can say that whole first paragraph then conclude that they'll have too much for us!? 

This away form thing is not as big an issue as made out, we've done fine against the sides around us away. Beat Southampton, drew with Everton, Bournemouth, only lost to Wolves due to a missed pen. Got two of the bottom three left away as well as winnable games vs Palace and Villa. Southampton and Bournemouth got their second away wins of the season at the weekend. 

I would see this as a pretty 50-50 game, draw is better for us than them but if drawing in the second half they will feel like they have to push allowing us to play on the break. I fancy us to be competitive and edge it.

[DeesideRed]

They are best attacking down their right through Bowen but Lodi and Felipe are probably our best side defensively.

Really big game. get something out of this and they really will be in it

[ozzyten10]

Just an opinion - hope I am wrong and we have more about us away like you suggest. I just think Moyes is a decent manager who will now know he is in a relegation battle and set up accordingly. He has loads of experience and a decent squad of players.
We need a few away results and a draw here would be a good result.

[wassy04]

Just an opinion - hope I am wrong and we have more about us away like you suggest. I just think Moyes is a decent manager who will now know he is in a relegation battle and set up accordingly. He has loads of experience and a decent squad of players.
We need a few away results and a draw here would be a good result.

He may be a decent manager but hard to argue with current form. Definitely a good time to play them either way.

[Sniffer Dog (Admin)]

I would take a draw now if offered but on one condition.

We get 3 points against Everton at home the following week.

[nffc93]

I would take a draw now if offered but on one condition.

We get 3 points against Everton at home the following week.

We have a massive opportunity here.