The Championship
I have gone from thinking that we would definitely make the top six to missing out.

While we have had a decent January window I’m not sure we’ve done enough offensively
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We have 19 games left of the season and if we assume 76 points will be enough we need 36 points from those remaining 19. That means that we have to maintain our form since CH left with an average of 1,9 points per game. I would say that we would have to win at least 10 more games and then draw 6 which leaves us with the possibility of losing 3. If you look at the fixture list there are definitely 10 winnable games.

I would target 3 points from the following games against Barnsley, Cardiff, Preston, Bristol City, Reading, Blackpool, Birmingham, Peterborough, Swansea and Hull.

We then need 6 draws from this pool with 9 teams; Coventry, Blackburn, Stoke, Bournemouth, Sheff Utd, QPR, Fulham, Luton and West Brom.

Keep in mind that we are among the high scorers in the league (only Fulham (+16) and Blackburn (+3) have scored more than us since CH left) and we have one of the best defenses in the league (only West Brom (-3) have let in fewer goals than us since CH left). We have absolutely nothing to fear in this league.
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(23-01-2022, 08:10 PM)Username Wrote: I have gone from thinking that we would definitely make the top six to missing out.

While we have had a decent January window I’m not sure we’ve done enough offensively

If Grabban or BJ gets injured.  We're done.

We could do with another offensive signing with actual goals in them.  Jed' comes to mind.

SA.
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(23-01-2022, 09:51 PM)GaribaldiRED Wrote: We have 19 games left of the season and if we assume 76 points will be enough we need 36 points from those remaining 19. That means that we have to maintain our form since CH left with an average of 1,9 points per game. I would say that we would have to win at least 10 more games and then draw 6 which leaves us with the possibility of losing 3. If you look at the fixture list there are definitely 10 winnable games.

I would target 3 points from the following games against Barnsley, Cardiff, Preston, Bristol City, Reading, Blackpool, Birmingham, Peterborough, Swansea and Hull.

We then need 6 draws from this pool with 9 teams; Coventry, Blackburn, Stoke, Bournemouth, Sheff Utd, QPR, Fulham, Luton and West Brom.

Keep in mind that we are among the high scorers in the league (only Fulham (+16) and Blackburn (+3) have scored more than us since CH left) and we have one of the best defenses in the league (only West Brom (-3) have let in fewer goals than us since CH left). We have absolutely nothing to fear in this league.

Good post CH stats.

But QPR, Huddersfield, WBA and Boro' in good form.

Huddersfield I think we can overhaul.

But we're going to have to get past QPR or WBA or Boro' to hit the top 6.

WBA have been in mediocre form.  QPR keep winning though they do see-saw with form.  And I don't see Wilder's Boro' not being in the top 6.

I'd be targeting WBA or QPR.  We have to keep winning and hope they slip up.  Winning vs Barnsley will pull those teams closer to us.  Need to apply pressure on them and hope they choke.

When it was just Huddersfield to close, I was confident.  Wilder's Boro' are another proposition since they entered the fray.

SA.
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I reckon we're going to need a run if 5 or 6 wins on the bounce to get us up there. And then of course ensure we dont lose a couple after the run stops.

Maybe we're on the run now?
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(24-01-2022, 08:14 AM)Paplane Wrote: I reckon we're going to need a run if 5 or 6 wins on the bounce to get us up there. And then of course  ensure we dont lose a couple after the run stops.

Maybe we're on the run now?

Agree. 

And now would be a good time. With bouremouth, blackburn and stoke coming up in first half a feb, now would be a very good time to hit form as those three games will go along way to defining where we might finish.

This is not to discount barnsley and cardiff. We have to be looking to win these games if we are to carry momentum into february. And as we've seen the past, underestimate any side in this league and you will come unstuck. Forest have had a bad habit of losing these games in the past. Lets hope its different under coops - so far it has been
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(24-01-2022, 08:24 AM)Plymouth red Wrote:
(24-01-2022, 08:14 AM)Paplane Wrote: I reckon we're going to need a run if 5 or 6 wins on the bounce to get us up there. And then of course  ensure we dont lose a couple after the run stops.

Maybe we're on the run now?

Agree. 

And now would be a good time. With bouremouth, blackburn and stoke coming up in first half a feb, now would be a very good time to hit form as those three games will go along way to defining where we might finish.

This is not to discount barnsley and cardiff. We have to be looking to win these games if we are to carry momentum into february. And as we've seen the past, underestimate any side in this league and you will come unstuck. Forest have had a bad habit of losing these games in the past. Lets hope its different under coops - so far it has been

Every game is becoming a cup game.
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Bit of a decent game on tonight. Blackburn v Boro.

I'm looking forward to it. A win for either side will give them a boost.
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(24-01-2022, 12:21 PM)Paplane Wrote: Bit of a decent game on tonight. Blackburn v Boro.

I'm looking forward to it. A win for either side will give them a boost.

Me too pap, ideally would like a draw.
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(24-01-2022, 12:23 PM)Marinakis Red Wrote:
(24-01-2022, 12:21 PM)Paplane Wrote: Bit of a decent game on tonight. Blackburn v Boro.

I'm looking forward to it. A win for either side will give them a boost.

Me too pap, ideally would like a draw.

I dont know what's best. Blackburn look just out of sight for us at the moment. Are we not better off if they get the win? I dunno.
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(24-01-2022, 12:26 PM)Paplane Wrote:
(24-01-2022, 12:23 PM)Marinakis Red Wrote:
(24-01-2022, 12:21 PM)Paplane Wrote: Bit of a decent game on tonight. Blackburn v Boro.

I'm looking forward to it. A win for either side will give them a boost.

Me too pap, ideally would like a draw.

I dont know what's best. Blackburn look just out of sight for us at the moment. Are we not better off if they get the win? I dunno.

I'm greedy mate and looking at the top 2 if we have a good run. So Blackburn are in that mix, especially if they lose Brereton before the window closes may open a door for us. Especially with us playing them in a couple of weeks, we could soon pull them back in.
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(24-01-2022, 12:29 PM)Marinakis Red Wrote:
(24-01-2022, 12:26 PM)Paplane Wrote:
(24-01-2022, 12:23 PM)Marinakis Red Wrote:
(24-01-2022, 12:21 PM)Paplane Wrote: Bit of a decent game on tonight. Blackburn v Boro.

I'm looking forward to it. A win for either side will give them a boost.

Me too pap, ideally would like a draw.

I dont know what's best. Blackburn look just out of sight for us at the moment. Are we not better off if they get the win? I dunno.

I'm greedy mate and looking at the top 2 if we have a good run. So Blackburn are in that mix, especially if they lose Brereton before the window closes may open a door for us. Especially with us playing them in a couple of weeks, we could soon pull them back in.

Yep, I suppose so. Draw it is then.
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