Hughton's Got A Job On His Hands

[Knocker West]

How about just leaving it to EM and Mendes, two guys who are used to brokering business deals and know what they are doing and how to get the job done.

Let’s hope so.

It ain’t worked so far.

It hasn't even been close to working, so far, so far Mendes has just basically ripped EM off, which was why they previously fell out.

Mendes is not our friend & is not going to be doing us any special favours.

That lesson was learned a few years ago.

Naive, very naive.

It was, but hopefully lessons have been learned, in fact we know they have.

I doubt the same mistakes will be made again.

What's the saying, once bitten, twice shy?

[zicorice]

Of course, the best case scenario is that he comes back pre-season, CH loves him to bits and turns him into the £13m player we actually purchased.

Yeah, I know........

100% best case scenario. Could still happen, though chances look a bit slim. 

Never looked the same after Alfreton clogger did him.

[wassy04]

Plus like I have said before I think that EM and Mendes between them will get a better fee for Carvalho then many of us think.

Maybe but would have to be double figures to really have an impact given we still owe the remainder of his initial fee in amortisation.

I dont think the situation will be that bad.

We lost 25m the season before last and 16m in the last set of accounts, which would suggest we can lose 8m in the next set of accounts; however, those figures are not the same as the ones put forward for P & S assessment.

You can strip out 2m per year for running the Academy and we know they have already spent 2m on the new stand; that puts next years magic figure at somewhere near the 14/15m mark, which should be achievable.

Over the past two financial years we have spent a lot of money paying players off to leave, that exercise should be complete by now so that will bring the huge over spend on wages down.

As far as transfers go, we are well in credit - we have displayed profits of 10.5 and 11m in the last two sets of accounts and will show a profit in the next set which will record the sale of Matty Cash.

I do not think there will be any need to sell off one of the younger players for three reasons:

1. There will not be the market there for Clubs to justify spending top dollar on a youngster, certainly not outside the top 6 or 7 Clubs; Vretntzos and Marinakis will be well aware of that.

2. Vrentzos is very adept at getting the prices he wants for players; there will be some wheeler dealing going on with regard to Carvalho, Da Costa and Ioannou, and probably a few other fringe players.

3. I could not help but notice that there are new documents pending on the Companies House site - A resolution of allotment of securities, and a Resolution of removal of pre emption rights

The allotment of securities is nothing new, they are usually issued when the Club have converted debt to equity.

The removal of pre emption rights is new; this is a vehicle for issuing new equity without diluting other shareholders stock.

The removal suggests Marinakis is about to inject some funds into the Club and in doing so dilute the investment of Komanakis; I could of course be completely wrong, but that is the way I see it.

I put what Swiss Ramble put in the finance thread, we can afford to lose around 13m in FFP terms. This is obviously based on his rough calcs, but I'd suggest he's likely to know as much as anyone unless you work in finance at Forest!

Based on those accounts we still need to be bringing in around 10m from sales each year, net of amortisation. Lets assume that the accounts are similar to the ones just released, so we need to be bringing in net profit on sales of around 10m. We spent around 10m too last summer (maybe less depending on where you read it) so maybe 15m net sales in FFP terms. 

So based on that I reckon (hugely projected) we need to bring in around 10m again but have a little leeway to slip to 8m. Hence I think you could get away with selling Mighten or Johnson. (I didn' factor in the 4 year thing first time round)

Obviously all of this is massively guessing as the accounts work a year behind so maybe things look more positive in the next accounts as you say we've taken some big costs on wages.

Exactly, its all guess work.

The Swiss Ramble blog is fantastic; he is as good as you get for analysing clubs accounts.

There is another guy who comments on the financial side who is also very good; unfortunately his name escapes me

Think its kieron Maguire, does a Price of football podcast. I've been reading Swiss Ramble for a long time, he used to do longer blogs rather than twitter threads. Would delve years back, must've taken days no wonder he stopped!

[Knocker West]

...& avoid becoming a rich mans version of Zach Clough.

How bad is Zach Clough?

I know hes not our player anymore, but it's fascinating watching this train wreck of a career, from being heralded, a few year ago, to basically being surplus at Wigan, it's an incredible decline.

I know he's only at Wigan as we paid for him to be there, just to get him away from here, but you think they;d want him, or use him, but he can't even get in their struggling team, & only makes the bench because of numbers & a lack of alternatives.

Tonight Gavin Massey has just gone off early, through injury, & Clough was overlooked in favour of a guy who is only there because he was released by Salford.

How far has a player fallen when Salfords rejects are preferred as a square peg in a round hole over Zach Clough.

I can not see Wigan offering him a contract in the summer, o it will be down the league further I suspect.

It's a note worthy decline & at 26 it's probably not over.

[Salvatore Matrecano]

I honestly dont know but I have a suspicion Clough has some mental health issues behind his decline. Yes he has made more money out of NFFC than most of us can ever dream of but he is gone now and Im not going to gloat about his future career. I get uncomfortable to when people slag off Billy Davies and what has become of him, I am sure he is another who struggles with mental health, there was a particularly gratuitous article about him in the Athletic last year. Leave these people be.

Anyhow Sniff will be on here now with an angry face emoji telling us to get back on topic.

[Sniffer Dog (Admin)]

I honestly dont know but I have a suspicion Clough has some mental health issues behind his decline. Yes he has made more money out of NFFC than most of us can ever dream of but he is gone now and Im not going to gloat about his future career. I get uncomfortable to when people slag off Billy Davies and what has become of him, I am sure he is another who struggles with mental health, there was a particularly gratuitous article about him in the Athletic last year. Leave these people be.

Anyhow Sniff will be on here now with an angry face emoji telling us to get back on topic.

:D 

Have I become so predictable SM?

Anyway I changed the thread title to make the thread more general than what it was before.

[Tricky]

I honestly dont know but I have a suspicion Clough has some mental health issues behind his decline. Yes he has made more money out of NFFC than most of us can ever dream of but he is gone now and Im not going to gloat about his future career. I get uncomfortable to when people slag off Billy Davies and what has become of him, I am sure he is another who struggles with mental health, there was a particularly gratuitous article about him in the Athletic last year. Leave these people be.

Anyhow Sniff will be on here now with an angry face emoji telling us to get back on topic.

I read somewhere that he suffers from depression. 

Apparently, he was sent a text by his his agent, whilst his agent was driving along a motorway (M6 i think), his agent ploughed into two motorway workers causing one of them to lose their life and the other permanently paralysed and Clough has blamed himself for causing the accident. I don't know if Clough sent a reply or not

[Sniffer Dog (Admin)]

Carvalho hasn't been great but comparisons with Clough and Dimitru are a bit wide of the mark I think.

[Knocker West]

Carvalho hasn't been great but comparisons with Clough and Dimitru are a bit wide of the mark I think.

I don't think they are, both rate 6.5 something on statistical grounds, both were big money signings that failed here & dropped into obscurity, Zach Clough was involved in a goal every 215 minutes here, either by scoring it, or assisting, while Carvalho was involved in one ever 244 minutes, both were loaned to lower ranked clubs, with a view to moving them on, neither set those loan clubs on fire & Clough ended up losing us a large slice of money, as will Carvalho.

I think comparisons are very valid.

[Salvatore Matrecano]

David Johnson saying tonight why Norwich are getting things right and stopping just short of saying why we aren’t.

[Knocker West]

David Johnson saying tonight why Norwich are getting things right and stopping just short of saying why we aren’t.

He's not wrong & he seldom is on football matters, he's worth following, & listening to etc. as I can tell you from personal experience he has a good football brain.

[Paplane]

I cant understand why people take a defeat to a club that have won its last eight games and are ten points ahead at the top of the league and use it as an example of why our club is so shite.

We were always going to get beaten last night, as pretty much every other team in the league will have been.