What Is The Clubs Transfer Strategy

[zicorice]

I liked Ansarifard too but like Chema he couldn't settle and wanted out. Pity, he could have been very useful this season. At least we made a tidy profit like we do on most permanent transfers that don't work out for whatever reason.

I wondered if it was something like that. Good luck to the lad, will remember him for his performance away at QPR last season and the clinical finish.

[Strawberry Avenger]

Perhaps we need a trip to Denmark to see how Copenhagen have become the masters of the transfer market and get some advice / tips.

Few clubs in Europe can boast their hit rate. Their ability to find value in the market and turn quick profits, all while continuing to win trophies domestically and compete on the continent, marks the champions of Denmark out from the rest.

The list of player sales in recent transfer windows is remarkable.

Denis Vavro was sold to Lazio for £9.5m in the summer with Robert Skov joining Hoffenheim for £9m. Both had been signed for a fraction of those figures just two years earlier.

But they are just the latest in a long list. Robin Olsen was signed for £630,000 and sold to Roma for £8.1m. In the space of a single season, Jesse Joronen was signed for £800,000 and then sold on to Serie A side Brescia for £4.5m.

Copenhagen have been flipping players this way for years and winning titles along the way - twelve of them since 2001. In Europe, the consistency is remarkable. Copenhagen are one of only 15 clubs to have competed in the group stage of European competition in 13 of the past 14 seasons. It is a list that includes Real Madrid, Barcelona and Bayern Munich. The difference is that Copenhagen had to qualify just to reach the group stage in all but one of those seasons.

So how have they managed it? What is striking is the consistency, not just in terms of the results but the identity of the personnel delivering them.
Stale Solbakken has been Copenhagen's manager for the past seven years having had an earlier five-year stint in charge. Lange was his assistant during that first spell but has spent the past six years in this new role as technical director, overseeing the club's vision.

They have a strong culture and four key principles that have been essential to the club's sustained success., a proactive strategy, stability among key personnel and a very clear style of play which has them punching above their weight in the European
 
They are not in a position to sign ten players every summer. No, scout a player for a long time. And when the bring someone in both the club, manager, fans a player have faith that is the one.
 
They have had to recalibrate the approach to the market to stay ahead by searching for tomorrow's competitive advantage and embracing new ideas.
 
Frederik Leth has been appointed as the club's head of scouting and analysis with a strong emphasis on a data-based approach. This use of statistical analysis has opened up new markets. Federico Santander was signed from a club in his native Paraguay before being sold on to Bologna in the summer of 2018. Eastern Europe is fertile ground now too.

"At the identification phase, our process is very data driven," explains Lange. "We are trying to find players earlier in their career. That is difficult to predict but it is important to try. "The partnership between myself, the manager and the scouts is crucial. We take time at the start of the process to establish exactly what we are looking for. Then we can set the parameters with the data. It is only after that stage that it becomes about live scouting.

"It helps that everyone knows their job and that Stale Solbakken has a clear style of play. It is difficult for the scouts if the style is changing from season to season.

"For example, if you watched Denis Vavro's performances for Zilina in Slovakia, you would not have seen a player whose performances were ready for a top-five league but the potential was definitely there. That is an example of recruitment based on our newer strategy, one that we have tried to fine tune over the past three or four years."

There is still a place for the more experienced player. Nicklas Bendtner passed through Copenhagen recently, while players such as former Brentford defender Andreas Bjelland and club captain Zeca, both 31, who all came in and hit the ground running and will be expected to lead the way against Celtic. 

"We need balance. The younger players need those players alongside them to fulfil their potential."

But the strategy is clear and something similar to what Brentford are doing.

I cannot see Forest’s strategy at moment, can you.

Yes.

I can.  This is the model they are probably heading towards.

Because they probably employ this model at Olympiakos.
 
Even the club mentioned above buy low and sell high.  That's the strategy.  And there has been at least two years of evidence of this strategy since Marinakis took over.  It has probably helped keep the club afloat.  And allowed Forest to be where they are now.  5th.

The only difference?  Forest have only just (in relative terms) put in place the transfer/recruitment hierarchy and are not as far into it.

The club above have been doing that for 7(!) years.  

The difference between 2 and 7 years in football time is achingly different.

Forest are beginning to sell from a relative position of strength.  They are moving to being 'successful' and still realise profit on players whose peak value or 'time to go' has arrived whilst unearthing the talent to develop into the 1st team.  How do we know my latter point?  Well they sold Robinson, Chema and Appiah for £10 million between them.  Robinson 'time to go', Chema 'unhappy' and Appiah (who was touch and go about making it into the 1st team vs an offer just too good to turn down.  So someone else will assume the risk of developing him and we got £7 million for him.)

The priority is to get promoted.  Of course.  But the Academy is the bed rock of what Forest are doing.  The scout decent technical players relatively cheaply and sell them on.  They turn a profit on them.  It's already here...and it's already working.  The next set of accounts to come out will be interesting as Forest are now further into this philosophy. They've signed two promising u23 talents to develop.

SA.

[Strawberry Avenger]

I noted also from the above read: time to scout the players and time with the same hierarchy....time give to a given footballing philosophy.

So even if the Coach changes, the model of success doesn't.

Time. It's been Forest's achilles heel vs their peers. That may not be immediately apparent but the Earth is moving beneath our feet.

Even if The Coach leaves. A new 'The Coach' will arrive.

The underlying philosophy will not change. Another two years of this takes us into the 'New Stand' and on our current trajectory we'll be in the autos whether we get promoted this year or not.

SA.

[Tricky]

I noted also from the above read: time to scout the players and time with the same hierarchy....time give to a given footballing philosophy.

So even if the Coach changes, the model of success doesn't.

Time.  It's been Forest's achilles heel vs their peers.  That may not be immediately apparent but the Earth is moving beneath our feet.

Even if The Coach leaves.  A new 'The Coach' will arrive.

The underlying philosophy will not change.  Another two years of this takes us into the 'New Stand' and on our current trajectory we'll be in the autos whether we get promoted this year or not.

SA.

That though depends on 'The Coach'.

If the Coach is a Phillipe Montanier type of coach given the same remit, It doesn't mean we will continue on an upward trajectory. It will mean we hope we score more goals than the opposition. If the Coach is a Martin O'Neill type of Coach, the players may find his training and coaching methods too demanding or extreme and may not put in a full shift. If it is a Mark Warburton type of Coach, he may not show the right desire to win promotion, his transfer targets may be below the standard expected and therefore not able to deliver the goods. It may be an Aitor Karanka type of Coach, who will want to do things his way and not the way he has been briefed, then throws his toys out of the pram when summonsed by the higher echelons of the club hierarchy.

The Coach is key to all of this happening. The wrong Coach may not be able to motivate the players enough, he may be disliked by the players who will not give him 100%, he may prove to be the wrong type of person with the wrong personality, he may try to inject the wrong philosophies into the players, he may just not have what it takes to succeed.

Time is an essence, there is no getting away from that fact. But, it is not something our owner is patient with. He wants to start seeing a return on his investments and he wants to see that sooner rather than later. So in our owners eyes, time is a precious commodity he is not prepared to invest in.

[ThePromisedLand]

Time.
Investment.
Chicken. Or the egg.

[wassy04]

To be fair to the recruitment, the last 3 coaches have all had a fairly similar style of play, in terms of defensive style.

[optimistic_red]

I noted also from the above read: time to scout the players and time with the same hierarchy....time give to a given footballing philosophy.

So even if the Coach changes, the model of success doesn't.

Time.  It's been Forest's achilles heel vs their peers.  That may not be immediately apparent but the Earth is moving beneath our feet.

Even if The Coach leaves.  A new 'The Coach' will arrive.

The underlying philosophy will not change.  Another two years of this takes us into the 'New Stand' and on our current trajectory we'll be in the autos whether we get promoted this year or not.

SA.

That though depends on 'The Coach'.

If the Coach is a Phillipe Montanier type of coach given the same remit, It doesn't mean we will continue on an upward trajectory. It will mean we hope we score more goals than the opposition. If the Coach is a Martin O'Neill type of Coach, the players may find his training and coaching methods too demanding or extreme and may not put in a full shift. If it is a Mark Warburton type of Coach, he may not show the right desire to win promotion, his transfer targets may be below the standard expected and therefore not able to deliver the goods. It may be an Aitor Karanka type of Coach, who will want to do things his way and not the way he has been briefed, then throws his toys out of the pram when summonsed by the higher echelons of the club hierarchy.

The Coach is key to all of this happening. The wrong Coach may not be able to motivate the players enough, he may be disliked by the players who will not give him 100%, he may prove to be the wrong type of person with the wrong personality, he may try to inject the wrong philosophies into the players, he may just not have what it takes to succeed.

Time is an essence, there is no getting away from that fact. But, it is not something our owner is patient with. He wants to start seeing a return on his investments and he wants to see that sooner rather than later. So in our owners eyes, time is a precious commodity he is not prepared to invest in.

You are correct, the right coach does make a huge difference. However, the new system will mean that all the support coaches, backroom staff won't change if the coach does.

[ThePromisedLand]

So Barcelona given special permission to sign Braithwaite outside transfer window.
Someone needs to ‘test’ the FA’s power to block all such signings - just hope we don’t need that facility & that Grabbs remains injury free for the rest of the season.
Special laws for the so called ‘big clubs’.
The whole thing stinks!

[Paplane]

So Barcelona given special permission to sign Braithwaite outside transfer window.
Someone needs to ‘test’ the FA’s power to block all such signings - just hope we don’t need that facility & that Grabbs remains injury free for the rest of the season.
Special laws for the so called ‘big clubs’.
The whole thing stinks!

They triggered Braithwaites buy out clause meaning that  his club Leganes had no way of preventing him leaving but couldnt then buy a replacement. They're currently 2nd from bottom in the middle of a relegation battle.

Its stinks. He'll be cast aside in the summer.

[Sabricadabra]

Whatever the club’s transfer strategy is, and I doubt it is rigid, it is working well. League position has improved year on year under the current owners. Only a modest sum has been spent in relative net terms.

It would be interesting to see how the wage bill has increased. Comparing league position with wage bill is the real measure of a recruitment strategy.

[Sniffer Dog (Admin)]

Whatever the club’s transfer strategy is, and I doubt it is rigid, it is working well. League position has improved year on year under the current owners. Only a modest sum has been spent in relative net terms.

It would be interesting to see how the wage bill has increased. Comparing league position with wage bill is the real measure of a recruitment strategy.

Exactly. Very well said.

[Strawberry Avenger]

I noted also from the above read: time to scout the players and time with the same hierarchy....time give to a given footballing philosophy.

So even if the Coach changes, the model of success doesn't.

Time.  It's been Forest's achilles heel vs their peers.  That may not be immediately apparent but the Earth is moving beneath our feet.

Even if The Coach leaves.  A new 'The Coach' will arrive.

The underlying philosophy will not change.  Another two years of this takes us into the 'New Stand' and on our current trajectory we'll be in the autos whether we get promoted this year or not.

SA.

That though depends on 'The Coach'.

If the Coach is a Phillipe Montanier type of coach given the same remit, It doesn't mean we will continue on an upward trajectory. It will mean we hope we score more goals than the opposition. If the Coach is a Martin O'Neill type of Coach, the players may find his training and coaching methods too demanding or extreme and may not put in a full shift. If it is a Mark Warburton type of Coach, he may not show the right desire to win promotion, his transfer targets may be below the standard expected and therefore not able to deliver the goods. It may be an Aitor Karanka type of Coach, who will want to do things his way and not the way he has been briefed, then throws his toys out of the pram when summonsed by the higher echelons of the club hierarchy.

The Coach is key to all of this happening. The wrong Coach may not be able to motivate the players enough, he may be disliked by the players who will not give him 100%, he may prove to be the wrong type of person with the wrong personality, he may try to inject the wrong philosophies into the players, he may just not have what it takes to succeed.

Time is an essence, there is no getting away from that fact. But, it is not something our owner is patient with. He wants to start seeing a return on his investments and he wants to see that sooner rather than later. So in our owners eyes, time is a precious commodity he is not prepared to invest in.

They're all 'ifs.' We have the certainty of three fired Managers who couldn't work with the hierarchy.  Now the new footballing hierarchy is in place we have 'The Coach.'  It's a new system and it will take to bed in.  However, promotion this season is expected.  So that's the time frame for it to bed in. :)

Under the new regime any encumbant will be replaced by a 'The Coach' that can fulfil the footballing philosophy. 

There are no guarantees of an upward trajectory.  But if 'The Wrong Coach' doesn't maintain that upward trajectory he'll be fired.  You can 'guarantee it.'  He'll be replaced by the 'The Right Coach.' 

Time?  Marinakis has invested two-three years of his time already in what was always a 3-5 year project.  Whether 'The Coach' gets time depends on him fulfilling his targets set by 'The Boss.'

Perhaps the boss isn't patient with pretenders, primmadonnas or something who will tell him he knows best.  That mediocre results from a 120%-140% wages turnover to achieve anything less that top 6 is unacceptable.  As a business owner, perhaps his 'essence of time' is viewed through that lens.

SA.