Nottingham Forest - Southampton

[Mcforest]

Not saying this is the biggest game of forest's premiership season but a win turns a 98% chance of relegation to a 52% chance. Also puts Southampton down.

[tugger2018]

We can’t give free kicks away on the edge of our box for this one
Navas
Aurier Felipe niakhate Lodi
Kouyate mangala Yates
Mgw
Johnson awonyi

[northeastred]

A win. A win and no stupid subsitions to naff up said win. That's all we want.. need to try and get 4/5 points from remaining games now. Please forest. It's all we ask

[Sniffer Dog (Admin)]

We can’t give free kicks away on the edge of our box for this one
Navas
Aurier Felipe niakhate Lodi
Kouyate mangala Yates
Mgw
Johnson awonyi

Errm

[wassy04]

Not saying this is the biggest game of forest's premiership season but a win turns a 98% chance of relegation to a 52% chance. Also puts Southampton down.

I think you might need to expand your statistics. If a win took us from 98% relegation to 52%, in a game in which we would probably go in with a greater than 50% chance of winning then 98% is not accurate.

Is it 98% of teams in 18th with 4 games to go are relegated? Surely you need to include context.

[Mcforest]

Sorry yes Wassy04 you are correct the 98% is based on current Position, current points, Season points per game, from game 19 and last 5 games points per game, Historical relegations at this point in the season. it is then run against the other teams in the bottom to see where we are in relation to them and what their chances are. But it is not based using the expected points per future games. Thus 3 points changes the 98% to 52%. That % will also keep changing due to the teams results before we play on monday.

[Sniffer Dog (Admin)]

Christ some of you lot don't half like to complicate things.

[Mcforest]

I get bored easy and i have access to these tools in my job lol

[DR Forest]

Christ some of you lot don't half like to complicate things.

lol

Simple summary-
In the here and now, it’s the most important game of the season
It will certainly have a big impact on, and may actually decide if we get relegated or stay up.
A win may therefore be worth over £100m to the club
If we believe we are good enough for this league, then it’s a game in which we need to show that and win.

That’s it I reckon  :Hat:

[wassy04]

I get bored easy and i have access to these tools in my job lol

Try this model:

This currently has us marginally 17th. It's based on a combination of future fixtures, xG etc. Currently has us staying up on 34 by one point...

[Mcforest]

I get bored easy and i have access to these tools in my job lol

Try this model:

This currently has us marginally 17th. It's based on a combination of future fixtures, xG etc. Currently has us staying up on 34 by one point...

I have a feeling me and you wassy would make a great drinking team

[Mcforest]

On 8th May 2023, Nottingham Forest and Southampton go head to head in the Premier League. The last meeting ended with the following result : Nottingham Forest 0 - 3 Southampton.

Out of 5 previous meetings, Nottingham Forest have won 3 matches while Southampton won 2. No matches between them have ended in a draw.

Nottingham Forest are in average home form while Southampton are performing poor at away.

Previous matches between Nottingham Forest and Southampton have averaged 3 goals per match and has a 40% chance of it happening in this fixture.

So far this season in the Premier League, Nottingham Forest have averaged 1.41 Points Per Game at home matches and Southampton 0.82 Points Per Game at away matches.
Southampton’s away goal xG is 0.93 however the actual is 0.76 and have failed to score in 46% of away games. Southampton score most goals between 41-50 mins into a game
Forests Actual goal scored at home is 1.29 and have scored in 88% of home games this season. Forest score most goals in 11-20 mins into a match.
Southampton’s goals conceded away xG is 1.63 however the actual is 1.71 and have only managed a clean sheet is 18% of away games. Southampton concede most goals between 41-70 mins into a game.
Forest Actual Goals conceded at home is 1.24 keeping a clean sheet in 29% of matches at home. Forest are mostly likey to concede between 81-FT during a game.
When Southampton play away the most common result is 1-0
When forest play at home the most common score is 1-0 and 1-1
Forest are the 12th best team in the premier league based on only home results.