10-02-2020, 09:42 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-02-2020, 09:46 PM by Joe Baker Legend.)
Forest v Charlton 11-2-20
Pre Match Comments.....
Football is a strange game that does throw up unexpected results. But truly anything other than a heavy defeat for Charlton on Tuesday will be a miracle.
Damage limitation is the best we can realistically hope for.
Forest could easily put 4 or 5 past us, and we cannot afford to lose half of our GD advantage over Wigan.
There will be big changes for this game and at least we now have a few options.
I expect to see Williams, Pearce, Purrington and maybe Cullen, go out.
We could look something like this;
Phillips
Lockyer Pratley Sarr
Matthews Davis Field Smith Doughty
Oztumer
Hemed
Strong bench; Taylor, Williams, Cullen, McGeady (if fit) Pearce, Purrington, Amos
If we play like we did yesterday- this will not be pleasant viewing and will not have a happy ending.
Saying that- we’re decent at the Valley on the whole so fingers crossed for a point against a very good Forest. 1-1
Reply: We're not at home by the way
Reply: Very good point lol! Scrap the draw then
Another defeat.
Wigan are at home against Middlesbrough on Tuesday evening.
It is quite likely that Charlton will be only 1 point above the relegation zone when the final whistles blow.
It is beginning to look like only Barnsley and Luton are weaker than us.
Prediction 4-0
Just realised Forest are 4th therefore we'll win. Remember, we always do well against the top teams!
Don’t usually do the aways, but I’m expecting to get to this one. While Forest are clearly favourites, anything can happen in a one-off game. There’s always hope. That’s why whatever we might think as fans, Lee Bowyer and his players will be treating each game the same and looking to win.
I know that not all forum members are believers in data and analytics, but those that are might find Infogol’s perspective interesting. This table can be edited to show the current League Table, the Table ranked by Expected Goals and then, finally, the predicted Final Table.
On average, we might expect the Final Table to be the same as the Expected Goals Table, albeit subject to potentially significant (unbiased) noise. On this basis we rank 23rd, i.e. above Luton, but below all the other relegation candidates. I think that’s probably about right.
The predicted Final Table is based on a simulation of all remaining fixtures using expected goals as the measure of relative strength, i.e. to set the odds for each match. In this table we are placed 21st, i.e. we just survive, because of the points we already have on the board. In other words, based on Infogol’s analysis, we ought to be relegated this season, but our good start might just save us.
However, because anything can happen in a one-off game these predictions are highly uncertain. We need to hope that the noise, or randomness in results, continues to work in our favour.
Turning to Tuesday’s match, Infogol’s ‘model’ reckons there is a 56% chance of a Forest win, a 24% chance of a draw and a 20% chance we’ll grab all three points. Interestingly, that’s slightly more favourable to us than the bookies’ odds imply. They reckon the probabilities are 61%, 23%, and 16%.
No way should we give up on tough away matches like this. Statistically, we’ll need to win at least one of them between now and the end of the season if we are going to survive.
Davis was shocking at Stoke, so should be nowhere near starting line-up.
Not sure who would score either.
If we started with that line up we would be handing the game on a platter to Forest!
I'd predict a 5 - 0 loss!
Bowyer has said Lyle is fine to start. I imagine Cullen would be as well (not mentioned though). Bonne and Mcgeady likely on the bench.
That's good. Let's hope Taylor can last the 90 mins and still be ok for Blackburn.
Aneke isn't playing for U23's in today's game.
I smell a visit from the goal fairies.
A good 2-0 away win.
A playoff push could still happen.
is this a serious post? Don’t get me wrong we could win- but a play off push??
Are people serious when mentioning play offs? Genuine question, not a dig. Just can't tell tone over a message.
I was serious about the play-offs back in August.
Charlton didn't used to be such a small-time, lower league mentality Club that mere survival in the bottom quarter of the Championship was something most of its fans would consider to be a success.
There is absolutely no way we are getting anywhere near the play-offs this season in the state we are currently in.
We just scraped a home win against Barnsley (where all the stats except goals suggest they battered us) and have been well beaten by Stoke - who have been crap all season.
If we made the top half of the table from here it would be a miracle.
Even supposed 'key' players coming back from injury has made little difference.
The team doesn't function anymore, since the young player who made it happen was recalled from his loan.
And for Lee Bowyer to say too many players were not at it last weekend? That's a real worry.
Maximum effort was all we had left - and it ought to be a given.
It snowing in nottingham so game not go ahead.
C'mon boys let's hope its after the lord mayors show for them and take it to them,failing that a smash and grab haha.
Pre Match Comments.....
Football is a strange game that does throw up unexpected results. But truly anything other than a heavy defeat for Charlton on Tuesday will be a miracle.
Damage limitation is the best we can realistically hope for.
Forest could easily put 4 or 5 past us, and we cannot afford to lose half of our GD advantage over Wigan.
There will be big changes for this game and at least we now have a few options.
I expect to see Williams, Pearce, Purrington and maybe Cullen, go out.
We could look something like this;
Phillips
Lockyer Pratley Sarr
Matthews Davis Field Smith Doughty
Oztumer
Hemed
Strong bench; Taylor, Williams, Cullen, McGeady (if fit) Pearce, Purrington, Amos
If we play like we did yesterday- this will not be pleasant viewing and will not have a happy ending.
Saying that- we’re decent at the Valley on the whole so fingers crossed for a point against a very good Forest. 1-1
Reply: We're not at home by the way
Reply: Very good point lol! Scrap the draw then
Another defeat.
Wigan are at home against Middlesbrough on Tuesday evening.
It is quite likely that Charlton will be only 1 point above the relegation zone when the final whistles blow.
It is beginning to look like only Barnsley and Luton are weaker than us.
Prediction 4-0
Just realised Forest are 4th therefore we'll win. Remember, we always do well against the top teams!
Don’t usually do the aways, but I’m expecting to get to this one. While Forest are clearly favourites, anything can happen in a one-off game. There’s always hope. That’s why whatever we might think as fans, Lee Bowyer and his players will be treating each game the same and looking to win.
I know that not all forum members are believers in data and analytics, but those that are might find Infogol’s perspective interesting. This table can be edited to show the current League Table, the Table ranked by Expected Goals and then, finally, the predicted Final Table.
On average, we might expect the Final Table to be the same as the Expected Goals Table, albeit subject to potentially significant (unbiased) noise. On this basis we rank 23rd, i.e. above Luton, but below all the other relegation candidates. I think that’s probably about right.
The predicted Final Table is based on a simulation of all remaining fixtures using expected goals as the measure of relative strength, i.e. to set the odds for each match. In this table we are placed 21st, i.e. we just survive, because of the points we already have on the board. In other words, based on Infogol’s analysis, we ought to be relegated this season, but our good start might just save us.
However, because anything can happen in a one-off game these predictions are highly uncertain. We need to hope that the noise, or randomness in results, continues to work in our favour.
Turning to Tuesday’s match, Infogol’s ‘model’ reckons there is a 56% chance of a Forest win, a 24% chance of a draw and a 20% chance we’ll grab all three points. Interestingly, that’s slightly more favourable to us than the bookies’ odds imply. They reckon the probabilities are 61%, 23%, and 16%.
No way should we give up on tough away matches like this. Statistically, we’ll need to win at least one of them between now and the end of the season if we are going to survive.
Davis was shocking at Stoke, so should be nowhere near starting line-up.
Not sure who would score either.
If we started with that line up we would be handing the game on a platter to Forest!
I'd predict a 5 - 0 loss!
Bowyer has said Lyle is fine to start. I imagine Cullen would be as well (not mentioned though). Bonne and Mcgeady likely on the bench.
That's good. Let's hope Taylor can last the 90 mins and still be ok for Blackburn.
Aneke isn't playing for U23's in today's game.
I smell a visit from the goal fairies.
A good 2-0 away win.
A playoff push could still happen.
is this a serious post? Don’t get me wrong we could win- but a play off push??
Are people serious when mentioning play offs? Genuine question, not a dig. Just can't tell tone over a message.
I was serious about the play-offs back in August.
Charlton didn't used to be such a small-time, lower league mentality Club that mere survival in the bottom quarter of the Championship was something most of its fans would consider to be a success.
There is absolutely no way we are getting anywhere near the play-offs this season in the state we are currently in.
We just scraped a home win against Barnsley (where all the stats except goals suggest they battered us) and have been well beaten by Stoke - who have been crap all season.
If we made the top half of the table from here it would be a miracle.
Even supposed 'key' players coming back from injury has made little difference.
The team doesn't function anymore, since the young player who made it happen was recalled from his loan.
And for Lee Bowyer to say too many players were not at it last weekend? That's a real worry.
Maximum effort was all we had left - and it ought to be a given.
It snowing in nottingham so game not go ahead.
C'mon boys let's hope its after the lord mayors show for them and take it to them,failing that a smash and grab haha.