I just read an article on the Athletic pointing out a transfer has roughly a 50% chance of success, listed a number of reason why it might not work.
The player might not be as good as you think; he might not suit the team’s style; he might end up being played out of position; the manager might not like him; he might have fitness or personal issues; he might be no better than a player already in the squad.
So on the basis of that, how do we think our transfer panel have done, I did this in Jan but think some will have been upgraded since then. Going to go for a simple metric of Success, Fail or Too Soon to Tell. Obviously some will be bigger successes than others. In order of fees (all in Euros from Transfermarkt)
Summer
MGW - 30m (currently) - Success
Taiwo - 20m - Success
Neco - 20m - Too Soon, likely Fail for that price
Dennis - 15m - Fail
Mangala - 13m - Success
Niakhate - 10m - Success (mainly due to his throw-ins!)
Biancone - 10m - Fail
O'Brien - 9m - Fail
Freuler - 9m - Fail
Richards - 8m - Fail
Lodi - Loan - Success
Hwang - 4m - Fail, what was the point of this signing?! It really deserves it's own thread as I have no idea.
Boly - 2.6m - Success (for that price)
Toffolo - 2.4m - Success
Bowler - 2.3m - Fail
Aguilera - 1m - Too soon to tell
Lingard - Free - Fail
Kouyate - Free - Success
Hennessey - Free - Fail (had to sign a replacement when he was required so can't really consider it a success)
Kanuric - Free - Who?!
Hendo - Loan - Success
Bade - Loan - Fail
Aurier - Free - Success
Winter
Danilo - 20m - Success
Shelvey - 6m - Fail
Wood - 20m - Fail
Felipe - 2.5m - Success
Scarpa - Free - Too soon to tell
Ayew - Free - Fail
Navas - Loan - Success
In total I make that 13 Success at 98m, 13 Fail at 83.3m and 4 Too soon to tell at 21m.
So based on some pretty detailed analysis, our hit rate came out at 50%! Given we signed so many players, there were always going to be fails as only 11 players can play each game so to get 13 considered a success is a good achievement. I think a number of those were probably updated to success late, in particular Mangala and Niakhate plus Danilo.
Something to note for this summer, expect at least half our signings to fail and if we get a 50% rate or above then we've done pretty well.
The player might not be as good as you think; he might not suit the team’s style; he might end up being played out of position; the manager might not like him; he might have fitness or personal issues; he might be no better than a player already in the squad.
So on the basis of that, how do we think our transfer panel have done, I did this in Jan but think some will have been upgraded since then. Going to go for a simple metric of Success, Fail or Too Soon to Tell. Obviously some will be bigger successes than others. In order of fees (all in Euros from Transfermarkt)
Summer
MGW - 30m (currently) - Success
Taiwo - 20m - Success
Neco - 20m - Too Soon, likely Fail for that price
Dennis - 15m - Fail
Mangala - 13m - Success
Niakhate - 10m - Success (mainly due to his throw-ins!)
Biancone - 10m - Fail
O'Brien - 9m - Fail
Freuler - 9m - Fail
Richards - 8m - Fail
Lodi - Loan - Success
Hwang - 4m - Fail, what was the point of this signing?! It really deserves it's own thread as I have no idea.
Boly - 2.6m - Success (for that price)
Toffolo - 2.4m - Success
Bowler - 2.3m - Fail
Aguilera - 1m - Too soon to tell
Lingard - Free - Fail
Kouyate - Free - Success
Hennessey - Free - Fail (had to sign a replacement when he was required so can't really consider it a success)
Kanuric - Free - Who?!
Hendo - Loan - Success
Bade - Loan - Fail
Aurier - Free - Success
Winter
Danilo - 20m - Success
Shelvey - 6m - Fail
Wood - 20m - Fail
Felipe - 2.5m - Success
Scarpa - Free - Too soon to tell
Ayew - Free - Fail
Navas - Loan - Success
In total I make that 13 Success at 98m, 13 Fail at 83.3m and 4 Too soon to tell at 21m.
So based on some pretty detailed analysis, our hit rate came out at 50%! Given we signed so many players, there were always going to be fails as only 11 players can play each game so to get 13 considered a success is a good achievement. I think a number of those were probably updated to success late, in particular Mangala and Niakhate plus Danilo.
Something to note for this summer, expect at least half our signings to fail and if we get a 50% rate or above then we've done pretty well.