Hughton's Got A Job On His Hands

[wassy04]

Plus like I have said before I think that EM and Mendes between them will get a better fee for Carvalho then many of us think.

Maybe but would have to be double figures to really have an impact given we still owe the remainder of his initial fee in amortisation.

I dont think the situation will be that bad.

We lost 25m the season before last and 16m in the last set of accounts, which would suggest we can lose 8m in the next set of accounts; however, those figures are not the same as the ones put forward for P & S assessment.

You can strip out 2m per year for running the Academy and we know they have already spent 2m on the new stand; that puts next years magic figure at somewhere near the 14/15m mark, which should be achievable.

Over the past two financial years we have spent a lot of money paying players off to leave, that exercise should be complete by now so that will bring the huge over spend on wages down.

As far as transfers go, we are well in credit - we have displayed profits of 10.5 and 11m in the last two sets of accounts and will show a profit in the next set which will record the sale of Matty Cash.

I do not think there will be any need to sell off one of the younger players for three reasons:

1. There will not be the market there for Clubs to justify spending top dollar on a youngster, certainly not outside the top 6 or 7 Clubs; Vretntzos and Marinakis will be well aware of that.

2. Vrentzos is very adept at getting the prices he wants for players; there will be some wheeler dealing going on with regard to Carvalho, Da Costa and Ioannou, and probably a few other fringe players.

3. I could not help but notice that there are new documents pending on the Companies House site - A resolution of allotment of securities, and a Resolution of removal of pre emption rights

The allotment of securities is nothing new, they are usually issued when the Club have converted debt to equity.

The removal of pre emption rights is new; this is a vehicle for issuing new equity without diluting other shareholders stock.

The removal suggests Marinakis is about to inject some funds into the Club and in doing so dilute the investment of Komanakis; I could of course be completely wrong, but that is the way I see it.

I put what Swiss Ramble put in the finance thread, we can afford to lose around 13m in FFP terms. This is obviously based on his rough calcs, but I'd suggest he's likely to know as much as anyone unless you work in finance at Forest!

Based on those accounts we still need to be bringing in around 10m from sales each year, net of amortisation. Lets assume that the accounts are similar to the ones just released, so we need to be bringing in net profit on sales of around 10m. We spent around 10m too last summer (maybe less depending on where you read it) so maybe 15m net sales in FFP terms. 

So based on that I reckon (hugely projected) we need to bring in around 10m again but have a little leeway to slip to 8m. Hence I think you could get away with selling Mighten or Johnson. (I didn' factor in the 4 year thing first time round)

Obviously all of this is massively guessing as the accounts work a year behind so maybe things look more positive in the next accounts as you say we've taken some big costs on wages.