24-11-2020, 02:58 PM
(24-11-2020, 02:29 PM)wassy04 Wrote:(24-11-2020, 01:31 PM)Sniffer Dog Wrote:(24-11-2020, 01:19 PM)Paplane Wrote: Would someone mind explaining the concept of this xg thing please. Ta.
Can't help you Pap. I am not a stat man. Prefer my own eyes.
EXPECTED GOALS (XG) MEASURES THE QUALITY OF A SHOT BASED ON SEVERAL VARIABLES SUCH AS ASSIST TYPE, SHOT ANGLE AND DISTANCE FROM GOAL, WHETHER IT WAS A HEADED SHOT AND WHETHER IT WAS DEFINED AS A BIG CHANCE.
ADDING UP A PLAYER OR TEAM’S EXPECTED GOALS CAN GIVE US AN INDICATION OF HOW MANY GOALS A PLAYER OR TEAM SHOULD HAVE SCORED ON AVERAGE, GIVEN THE SHOTS THEY HAVE TAKEN.
Apologies for the caps, that was how it was written on the opta site. It gives an idea of about how many goals you should've scored during a game. Obviously not a great stat on its own but taken over a number of games should give an indicator of performance as in general youd expect teams with a positive net xG (ie more goals expected to score than concede) to be winning most of their games
In other words it measures the quantity and quality of chances you create and concede, and puts a number on them.
Instead of a manager going "We was unlucky to be honest. Jack missed a sitter, we should have come away with a point." And their fans buying it cos they're biased, and opposition manager going "He was watching a different match to me. We had 2 or 3 great chances, we should of (sic) put it to bed by half time." And then his fans supporting him, cos they're also biased.
Someone / computers (I don't know) looks at all the chances and the quality of them, and quantifies it, and you can see which manager is a gobshite, if you assume they get the numbers right.

