30 Signings Who Gives a F**k, We're Nottingham Forest and We're Staying Up

[Reds73]

I think there are certain positions Coops like older more experienced players.

Centre half is certainly on of those areas for Coops.

[Joe Baker Legend]

Volume up.........

https://twitter.com/i/status/1663968951167057920

[King Joe]

Cheers Joe,
Brought a tear to my eye.

[JWJW]

How does Scarpa get a free pass compared to the other?

Yeah I was being kind there. I feel like he was injured/unavailable due to being scammed for large parts of the season so hard to tell too much.

People should realise Scarpa played less than 30% of the minutes that Shelvey played.

Yes....Scarpa had 181 minutes playing time.

Even Hennessey and Surridge and Colback had more PL minutes on the pitch this last season than Scarpa.

There seems to be a few people intent on writing off Scarpa even though he has hardly played at all.

Yes, he should get a free pass as the poor bloke has hardly played............

[Username]

The point being his contribution to the season, playing or not we’re paying him / for him.

[Sniffer Dog (Admin)]

I am confident that we will see the real Scarper next season. His personal problems should be behind him and he will get a full pre season too. I think that bodes well for the future.

[Salvatore Matrecano]

Scarpa also started in 3 EFL cup games including the 2 semis and the FA cup game vs Blackpool. Fair to say he contributed very little against either a very good PL team or a very poor Championship team. Maybe that’s unfair because the rest of the side stank the place put in those games too.

I just don’t see it for him here, my guess he has a season loan at Oly.

[Joe Baker Legend]

[JoeWorrallsBrain]

I just read an article on the Athletic pointing out a transfer has roughly a 50% chance of success, listed a number of reason why it might not work. 

The player might not be as good as you think; he might not suit the team’s style; he might end up being played out of position; the manager might not like him; he might have fitness or personal issues; he might be no better than a player already in the squad.

So on the basis of that, how do we think our transfer panel have done, I did this in Jan but think some will have been upgraded since then. Going to go for a simple metric of Success, Fail or Too Soon to Tell. Obviously some will be bigger successes than others. In order of fees (all in Euros from Transfermarkt)

Summer
MGW - 30m (currently) - Success
Taiwo - 20m - Success
Neco - 20m - Too Soon, likely Fail for that price
Dennis - 15m - Fail
Mangala - 13m - Success
Niakhate - 10m - Success (mainly due to his throw-ins!)
Biancone - 10m - Fail
O'Brien - 9m - Fail
Freuler - 9m - Fail
Richards - 8m - Fail
Lodi - Loan - Success
Hwang - 4m - Fail, what was the point of this signing?! It really deserves it's own thread as I have no idea. 
Boly - 2.6m - Success (for that price)
Toffolo - 2.4m - Success
Bowler - 2.3m - Fail
Aguilera - 1m - Too soon to tell
Lingard - Free - Fail
Kouyate - Free - Success
Hennessey - Free - Fail (had to sign a replacement when he was required so can't really consider it a success)
Kanuric - Free - Who?!
Hendo - Loan - Success
Bade - Loan - Fail
Aurier - Free - Success

Winter
Danilo - 20m - Success
Shelvey - 6m - Fail
Wood - 20m - Fail
Felipe - 2.5m - Success
Scarpa - Free - Too soon to tell
Ayew - Free - Fail
Navas - Loan - Success

In total I make that 13 Success at 98m, 13 Fail at 83.3m and 4 Too soon to tell at 21m.

So based on some pretty detailed analysis, our hit rate came out at 50%! Given we signed so many players, there were always going to be fails as only 11 players can play each game so to get 13 considered a success is a good achievement. I think a number of those were probably updated to success late, in particular Mangala and Niakhate plus Danilo.

Something to note for this summer, expect at least half our signings to fail and if we get a 50% rate or above then we've done pretty well.

Interesting and thoughtful post.  However, I think in a league without a salary cap, as fans we shouldn't evaluate individual players based on their price.  Unless you can argue that one signing prevented a more effective signing, who cares what the owner is willing to pay for talent, as long as it produces winning football?

[Tricky]

I just read an article on the Athletic pointing out a transfer has roughly a 50% chance of success, listed a number of reason why it might not work. 

The player might not be as good as you think; he might not suit the team’s style; he might end up being played out of position; the manager might not like him; he might have fitness or personal issues; he might be no better than a player already in the squad.

So on the basis of that, how do we think our transfer panel have done, I did this in Jan but think some will have been upgraded since then. Going to go for a simple metric of Success, Fail or Too Soon to Tell. Obviously some will be bigger successes than others. In order of fees (all in Euros from Transfermarkt)

Summer
MGW - 30m (currently) - Success
Taiwo - 20m - Success
Neco - 20m - Too Soon, likely Fail for that price
Dennis - 15m - Fail
Mangala - 13m - Success
Niakhate - 10m - Success (mainly due to his throw-ins!)
Biancone - 10m - Fail
O'Brien - 9m - Fail
Freuler - 9m - Fail
Richards - 8m - Fail
Lodi - Loan - Success
Hwang - 4m - Fail, what was the point of this signing?! It really deserves it's own thread as I have no idea. 
Boly - 2.6m - Success (for that price)
Toffolo - 2.4m - Success
Bowler - 2.3m - Fail
Aguilera - 1m - Too soon to tell
Lingard - Free - Fail
Kouyate - Free - Success
Hennessey - Free - Fail (had to sign a replacement when he was required so can't really consider it a success)
Kanuric - Free - Who?!
Hendo - Loan - Success
Bade - Loan - Fail
Aurier - Free - Success

Winter
Danilo - 20m - Success
Shelvey - 6m - Fail
Wood - 20m - Fail
Felipe - 2.5m - Success
Scarpa - Free - Too soon to tell
Ayew - Free - Fail
Navas - Loan - Success

In total I make that 13 Success at 98m, 13 Fail at 83.3m and 4 Too soon to tell at 21m.

So based on some pretty detailed analysis, our hit rate came out at 50%! Given we signed so many players, there were always going to be fails as only 11 players can play each game so to get 13 considered a success is a good achievement. I think a number of those were probably updated to success late, in particular Mangala and Niakhate plus Danilo.

Something to note for this summer, expect at least half our signings to fail and if we get a 50% rate or above then we've done pretty well.

Interesting and thoughtful post.  However, I think in a league without a salary cap, as fans we shouldn't evaluate individual players based on their price.  Unless you can argue that one signing prevented a more effective signing, who cares what the owner is willing to pay for talent, as long as it produces winning football?

I disagree to some extent on your opinion. A players price should give fans some idea what to expect from an individuals price tag. It gives us a rough idea of what we are getting. If a player has cost x number of millions, then doesnt come up with the goods for that price tag, then it shows that the club have squandered good money on that individual. Not only have the club spent money unwisely on that player, but they also potentially lose out on that players value should they wish to offload him. Joao Carvalho springs to mind as a good example.

Additionally, if the manager has been given a set budget to bring in new players and he pays x number of millions on a player and it doesnt work out, then said manager is then lumbered with a player that isnt fit for purpose and he still requires a player for that position.

This may be relevant, it may not be, but, what if SC approaches EM and says I want that striker from wherever for £19M. But EM turns round and says, you spent £19m on Chris Wood, so you have spent your striker budget already? That could then effect the clubs entire season, especially if, god forbid, Taiwo has a season ending injury early on.

Finally, as fans, we should care what the owner spends on players, as at some point, we are going to have to face up to our financial side of things when FFP rears its ugly head and that could affect all of us

[Fumanchew]

Surely the vastly inflated prices for English players must be kept in consideration?